While it is unfortunate, it was unfortunately expected (though I expected that the break would take place after the Clergy-Laity Conference). Communion was broken, even if not "officially," years ago. Letters were exchanged where Met. Cyprian invited members of ROCOR to join his synod as they left the Church Abroad over the MP/ROCOR issue. At least one (now deceased) ROCOR bishop responded with some stinging words about the ecclesiastical status of the synod of Met. Cyprian. Anyway, I don't claim to know more than others, but fwiw here are some thoughts...
What were the reasons for the breaking of communion? ÃƒÆ’Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ãƒâ€š
ROCOR's relations with the Greek Old Calendarists have never lasted long. They had relations with the GOC, Matthewites, and the synod of Met. Cyprian, and none of those relationships lasted longer than about a decade. Met. Cyprian disapproves of ROCOR's attempt to enter into communion with the MP, and that is probably the most public reason for the split. It's not that he's against discussions, he just seems to think that it is too soon (though he may think that an Ecumenical Council must first take place). However, at a deeper level, many in ROCOR thought that the communion with Met. Cyprian was a mistake, and the synod of Met. Cyprian themselves sent a letter that stated that only a few years after the 1994 agreement between ROCOR and Met. Cyprian, that certain ROCOR hierarchs started distancing themselves from Met. Cyprian's synod. This is really a break in communion that has been developing almost since they agreed to communion.
So, since they're no longer in communion with ROCOR, the Cyprianites are only in communion with the Old Calendarist Churches in Romania and Bulgaria? How large are each of these three Churches/Synods?
ROCOR has about 330 parishes, 25 monasteries, 13 bishops, 350 priests, 100 deacons, 150 monastics, and somewhere in the neighborhood of 100,000 active
laity (as opposed to reported
laity, which Orthodox Churches usually inflate a crazy amount). The other Churches involved here are much, much smaller (they probably wouldn't add up to ROCOR's stats even when the three are combined... I am not
saying this as something against them, as though being small makes them unimportant or unOrthodox... I'm just trying to give stats as I've understood them, though the ROCOR stats I got last year when I manually added all the stats given in the ROCOR directory up).
Now that the Cyprianites have broken communion with ROCOR, what are the odds of their re-establishing communion with the GOC (Chrysostomos II)?
I would guess not much more of a chance, at least for now, since the GOC still holds officially to the idea that the world Orthodoxy is in schism and deprived of sacramental grace, while Met. Cyprian holds to the belief that while world Orthodoxy is in schism, it nonetheless cannot under any circumstances be said to be deprived of grace. Also, officially anyway, the GOC seems to believe that the synod of Met. Cyprian is founded on uncanonical actions and possibly heretical theological beliefs. I think Met. Cyprian would have to move a great deal before the GOC would risk a schism by seeking communion with him.
Also, who are the True Old Calendar Churches of Romania and Bulgaria in communion with?
They may still be in communion with ROCOR (they were around the 1994 period when ROCOR began communing with Cyprian), though I'm not sure. Otherwise, as far as I know, they would only be in communion with each other, and Met. Cyprian.