I don't think we do ourselves or anyone else favors when we speculate about this, especially when it involves possible salvation of living persons, as opposed to those who have departed. Being outside the Orthodox Church is like being on the ocean alone, and not in the boat. You takes your chances. God is merciful and desires that all be saved and come to the knowledge of the truth. Yet if you see the boat, and they throw out a life preserver and offer to pull you to safety and you say, "No thanks, I'm fine where I am," well, you may survive, you may not. Do you want to take that chance?
Don't get me wrong, the folks on the boat who don't follow orders have it worse.