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Poll
Question: Which candidate do you PREDICT will come FOURTH in the papal election?  (Voting closed: October 30, 2012, 12:13:46 AM)
Bishop Tawadrous - 0 (0%)
Father Raphael Ava Mina - 1 (25%)
Father Seraphim El-Souriani - 3 (75%)
Total Voters: 4

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Author Topic: Predict the final three names for Patriarch of Alexandria  (Read 1524 times) Average Rating: 0
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qawe
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« on: October 25, 2012, 11:19:46 PM »

(Note: this is just a prediction exercise - in the end God's will prevails)

My prediction:
Bishop Raphael will definitely receive most votes.
Father Bakhomious will definitely receive the least number of votes.
The other 3 candidates will be very very close, but my personal PREFERENCE would be Father Raphael and Father Seraphim, since Bishop Tawadrous would be uncanonical (according to the spirit of the canons).  But it really could go any way with these 3.

I personally PREDICT Father Seraphim will not make it through (ie he will be 4th), since most of the voters in Egypt would not connect with his heavy emphasis on the lands of immigration.  On the other hand, many say that, despite his spirituality, Father Raphael is too old to become Pope (I disagree - but this is a prediction exercise).

What do you think? (please vote only if you are acquainted with the situation)

PS Salpy, can you please fix Father Seraphim's name in the poll?
« Last Edit: October 25, 2012, 11:32:15 PM by qawe » Logged
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2012, 06:40:37 AM »

The other 3 candidates will be very very close, but my personal PREFERENCE would be Father Raphael and Father Seraphim, since Bishop Tawadrous would be uncanonical (according to the spirit of the canons).  But it really could go any way with these 3.


Both Bishop Raphael and Bishop Tawadrous are general bishops, yet they were assigned pastoral duties over specific geographical areas (downtown Cairo and El-Bohaira, respectively), so I guess they are either equally eligible or equally non-eligible, depending on how you understand the canons.
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2012, 07:23:31 AM »

The other 3 candidates will be very very close, but my personal PREFERENCE would be Father Raphael and Father Seraphim, since Bishop Tawadrous would be uncanonical (according to the spirit of the canons).  But it really could go any way with these 3.


Both Bishop Raphael and Bishop Tawadrous are general bishops, yet they were assigned pastoral duties over specific geographical areas (downtown Cairo and El-Bohaira, respectively), so I guess they are either equally eligible or equally non-eligible, depending on how you understand the canons.

But Cairo is part of the diocese of the Pope, so Bishop Raphael would be a lot less uncanonical since he would not be leaving his old "diocese" (I know he's general bishop, but effectively they both have dioceses)
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2012, 07:43:38 AM »

Then the same goes for Bishop Tawadrous, since HE Metropolitan Bachomious is the metropolitan of El-Behera diocese..
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2012, 07:53:34 AM »

Then the same goes for Bishop Tawadrous, since HE Metropolitan Bachomious is the metropolitan of El-Behera diocese..

No, you misunderstand.  El-Behera is not part of the diocese of the pope - that is Cairo and Alexandria.  Central Cairo, obviously, is.
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2012, 08:16:34 AM »

I think it's definitely not an ideal situation that Cairo and Alexandria are part of the same diocese. The whole thing is just too big.
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2012, 09:03:05 PM »

I think it's definitely not an ideal situation that Cairo and Alexandria are part of the same diocese. The whole thing is just too big.

Well, I agree, but Alexandria is the ancient diocese and Cairo is the major population centre, so which one should then have the "pope"?
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2012, 10:34:08 AM »

Well, I agree, but Alexandria is the ancient diocese and Cairo is the major population centre, so which one should then have the "pope"?
Alexandria, of course. It is itself a big population centre, the second largest with more than 4 million registrered inhabitants (that  means probably about 10 million who live there de facto). It is a holy place and was the home of many saints. What better place could there be in Africa for the Patriarch of this continent?

As for Cairo, it should be divded into several dioceses, so that each bishop will have a reasonable flock to take care of and to avoid that the Metropolitan of Cairo would rival the position of the Pope and Patriarch. Also, a patriarchal representation office could be kept in Cairo for political lobbying etc. but the main seat of the PAtriarchate should definitely be in Alexandria.
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2012, 12:16:10 PM »

Well, I agree, but Alexandria is the ancient diocese and Cairo is the major population centre, so which one should then have the "pope"?
Alexandria, of course. It is itself a big population centre, the second largest with more than 4 million registrered inhabitants (that  means probably about 10 million who live there de facto). It is a holy place and was the home of many saints. What better place could there be in Africa for the Patriarch of this continent?

As for Cairo, it should be divded into several dioceses, so that each bishop will have a reasonable flock to take care of and to avoid that the Metropolitan of Cairo would rival the position of the Pope and Patriarch. Also, a patriarchal representation office could be kept in Cairo for political lobbying etc. but the main seat of the PAtriarchate should definitely be in Alexandria.
100% agreed...this could also help lessen the burden of all these "general bishops".  Functionally, HG Bishop Rafael acts like a diocesan bishop, or at the very least a khor-episcopa, no different from HG Bishop Tawadros. 

I think here in the US, a few dioceses should be made here.
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2012, 12:41:31 PM »

There is a reason why there are about 6+ general bishops (Anbas Boutros, Timothy, Youaness, Armia, Mina, Raphael and there might be others) in Cairo, and 2+ non-general bishops (Helwan, and Shoubra El-Kheima) in Cairo also, and none in Alexandria although the departed Pope did not visit Alexandria that much and resided in Cairo. 

Historically, till Anba Youaness Ibn Senhout , Metropolitan of Cairo in the 12th century, there was always metropolitan for Cairo. It was Pope Gabriel Ibn Turek who annexed it to his diocese(s).

If the new Pope is a monk, I hope they give Anba Raphael extended authority over all Cairo and distribute the rest of the general bishops among other vacant dioceses as a concession but a step towards sound Orthodox hierarchy and repairing the damage done during the last Papacy. That would be ideal.
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2012, 02:00:35 PM »

Final papal candidates announced in Cairo

Quote
29 October. Throughout the day the Coptic electors have been casting their votes for the five candidates for the papal throne and this evening it was announced that the three who have emerged as the front runners are Bishop Raphael, Bishop Tawadros and Father Raphael Ava Mina. These will be the three names which will be placed on the altar at St. Mark’s Cathedral in Abbeseya and from which the next Pope & Patriarch will be chosen by the Sacred Lot on Sunday, 4 November.

Among those voting were five Archbishops  delegated by the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewehedo Church, which included Archbishop Antonios, who normally resides in London. Under the terms of the Protocol with the Eritrean Orthodox Church there are two official observers who are His Grace Bishop Makarios (New Jersey) and Father Teklemariam of Frankfurt, who is the episcopal administrator of the European diocese, who are both loyal to the imprisoned Patriarch, Abune Antonios. The Coptic Orthodox Church declined to accept any representatives from the government controlled Synod in Asmara.
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2012, 08:37:57 PM »

Well, I agree, but Alexandria is the ancient diocese and Cairo is the major population centre, so which one should then have the "pope"?
Alexandria, of course. It is itself a big population centre, the second largest with more than 4 million registrered inhabitants (that  means probably about 10 million who live there de facto). It is a holy place and was the home of many saints. What better place could there be in Africa for the Patriarch of this continent?

As for Cairo, it should be divded into several dioceses, so that each bishop will have a reasonable flock to take care of and to avoid that the Metropolitan of Cairo would rival the position of the Pope and Patriarch. Also, a patriarchal representation office could be kept in Cairo for political lobbying etc. but the main seat of the PAtriarchate should definitely be in Alexandria.
100% agreed...this could also help lessen the burden of all these "general bishops".  Functionally, HG Bishop Rafael acts like a diocesan bishop, or at the very least a khor-episcopa, no different from HG Bishop Tawadros.  

I think here in the US, a few dioceses should be made here.

Mina,

I agree and pray wholeheartedly that we see a new influx of diocesan bishops (most definitely not general bishops though) here in America. There are so many states with churches that rarely even get visited by a bishop and in turn, they have become spiritually neglected. How many churches are there now in the midwest? How many churches are there in New Jersey or New York? How many churches are there in Canada? And yet, not a single one of these mentioned areas has a diocesan bishop. There are even individual cities now, such as Chicago, which have enough faithful/churches to establish a diocese. Or why not have an Archbishop, similar to Archbishop Demetrios of the Greek Church, who has the authority to ordain bishops in the Archdiocese of America? Nonetheless, any progression in the hierarchy of the Coptic Church outside of Egypt would be an improvement. Its actually quite ironic that we have bishops where we don't need them (such as secretaries for the Pope and abbots of monasteries (could be Archmandrites or Hegumens instead)), but we don't bishops to shepherd the flocks of people that need it. Bishops shouldn't be flying from Australia, Europe and Egypt to host conventions in America... My only fear of Father Mina ava Mina becoming Pope, is that we will continue to be neglected in these matters, as he may not be aware of them immediately, or even in the long-term future.

Copticyouth93
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2012, 11:07:52 PM »

Why would the ecclesiastical fiasco in North America be a problem for Abona Raphael alone and not for the bishops?

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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2012, 12:04:13 AM »

Yes, why Abouna Rafael would be considered negligent?  If anything, I have big hopes with Abouna more so than a general bishop, where I worry the general bishops themselves continue such a defunct rank in the church.
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2012, 12:36:53 AM »

Yes, why Abouna Rafael would be considered negligent?  If anything, I have big hopes with Abouna more so than a general bishop, where I worry the general bishops themselves continue such a defunct rank in the church.

Well, with Abouna Mina's age, and due to the fact that he is still a monastic with no worldly responsibilities, I don't know how long it is going to take him to start taking action and continuing the work which our late patriarch began. I am by no means saying Abouna Mina wouldn't make a good patriarch (on the contrary I am relieved that he is still on the list), but I am eager to start seeing chances as soon as possible.

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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2012, 06:04:13 AM »

Well, I agree, but Alexandria is the ancient diocese and Cairo is the major population centre, so which one should then have the "pope"?
Alexandria, of course. It is itself a big population centre, the second largest with more than 4 million registrered inhabitants (that  means probably about 10 million who live there de facto). It is a holy place and was the home of many saints. What better place could there be in Africa for the Patriarch of this continent?

As for Cairo, it should be divded into several dioceses, so that each bishop will have a reasonable flock to take care of and to avoid that the Metropolitan of Cairo would rival the position of the Pope and Patriarch. Also, a patriarchal representation office could be kept in Cairo for political lobbying etc. but the main seat of the PAtriarchate should definitely be in Alexandria.
100% agreed...this could also help lessen the burden of all these "general bishops".  Functionally, HG Bishop Rafael acts like a diocesan bishop, or at the very least a khor-episcopa, no different from HG Bishop Tawadros.  

I think here in the US, a few dioceses should be made here.

Mina,

I agree and pray wholeheartedly that we see a new influx of diocesan bishops (most definitely not general bishops though) here in America. There are so many states with churches that rarely even get visited by a bishop and in turn, they have become spiritually neglected. How many churches are there now in the midwest? How many churches are there in New Jersey or New York? How many churches are there in Canada? And yet, not a single one of these mentioned areas has a diocesan bishop. There are even individual cities now, such as Chicago, which have enough faithful/churches to establish a diocese. Or why not have an Archbishop, similar to Archbishop Demetrios of the Greek Church, who has the authority to ordain bishops in the Archdiocese of America? Nonetheless, any progression in the hierarchy of the Coptic Church outside of Egypt would be an improvement. Its actually quite ironic that we have bishops where we don't need them (such as secretaries for the Pope and abbots of monasteries (could be Archmandrites or Hegumens instead)), but we don't bishops to shepherd the flocks of people that need it. Bishops shouldn't be flying from Australia, Europe and Egypt to host conventions in America... My only fear of Father Mina ava Mina becoming Pope, is that we will continue to be neglected in these matters, as he may not be aware of them immediately, or even in the long-term future.

Copticyouth93

That is EXACTLY what HG Bishop Suriel, bishop of Melbourne said.  (He nominated HG Bishop Tawadrous - arguably the least 'impressive' candidate of the 3 - for the papacy.)
Bishop Suriel's comments can be found in this short video, and it is clear that he is indeed very Orthodox: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3Joyqs_CBs
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2012, 06:20:01 PM »

I think it is fair to assume that the problem in North America started and was neglected in the Papacy of Anba Shenouda. He was a bishop before being a Pope just like Anba Rophael and Anba Tawadrous. He definitely knew about it and in fact mentioned in one of his last sermons that he regrets not consecrating a bishop for Canada. His first hand knowledge did not improve the situation, nor did his episcopate before the Papacy help him much in this area.

Also, the Holy Synod should have intervened when the congregations were asking for a bishop or some organization of the dioceses in North America. Both bishops are part of the Synod and did little.

Abona Raphael is not the stuttering ignorant monk everyone is making him to be. He is a copy of Pope Kyrillos, even in the lack of appreciation of his capabilities. 

In any case, those who want a bishop as a Pope have double the chance now than those who want a monk.       
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2012, 07:39:25 PM »

I think it is fair to assume that the problem in North America started and was neglected in the Papacy of Anba Shenouda. He was a bishop before being a Pope just like Anba Rophael and Anba Tawadrous. He definitely knew about it and in fact mentioned in one of his last sermons that he regrets not consecrating a bishop for Canada. His first hand knowledge did not improve the situation, nor did his episcopate before the Papacy help him much in this area.

Also, the Holy Synod should have intervened when the congregations were asking for a bishop or some organization of the dioceses in North America. Both bishops are part of the Synod and did little.

Abona Raphael is not the stuttering ignorant monk everyone is making him to be. He is a copy of Pope Kyrillos, even in the lack of appreciation of his capabilities.  

In any case, those who want a bishop as a Pope have double the chance now than those who want a monk.        


It seems that this (false) image of Abouna Raphael is very common in the diaspora; but certainly it is almost non-existent in Egypt - he was very close to getting more votes than Bishop Tawadros! (most voters are from Egypt).  I think the diaspora has lost touch with the common solution in Egypt whenever one has a big problem - visit one of the monasteries and see a holy monk who will no doubt solve it - more often than not, this person is Abouna Raphael Ava Mina.  Thus, there is less appreciation for his qualities in the diaspora.

I think, however, that whoever is chosen will ordain more bishops in North America - Abouna Raphael, Anba Raphael (who seems acutely aware of the deviation from Orthodox ecclesiology) and Bishop Tawadros (nominated by Bishop Suriel, whose first comment regarding the new patriarch is that he should ordain more bishops in the diaspora).

I don't think there are many in the diaspora who specifically want a bishop, not a monk.  Perhaps there are some who just don't want THIS monk (Abouna Raphael).  Anyway, your mathematical calculations of probability  fail to take into account God's hand.  I'm not assuring that God will intervene, such that it will not be random, but his intervention is quite likely given the largely godly way these elections have been carried out.
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2012, 07:52:39 AM »

Bishop Tawadros chosen as Egypt's new Coptic pope
http://goo.gl/ibQpk

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« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2012, 01:53:46 PM »

Qawe,

Why do you think the process of Papal election and the subsequent lottery was godly? I am just curious.
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« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2012, 05:09:21 PM »

Qawe,

Why do you think the process of Papal election and the subsequent lottery was godly? I am just curious.

They got rid of the self-seeking bishops who were campaigning for the papacy.
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« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2012, 06:12:33 PM »

Qawe,

Why do you think the process of Papal election and the subsequent lottery was godly? I am just curious.

They got rid of the self-seeking bishops who were campaigning for the papacy.
I think everyone was happy for the elimination of two specific dangerous candidates that they overlooked the serious flaw in the whole process and the 1957 bylaws. We were just happy to have anyone but these two. This is an emotional position and has nothing to do with principles.

In any case, it is over. Anba Bachomius got his right hand man and sincere disciple elected ( no conflict of interest suggested  Smiley) and one has to appreciate his intelligence and strong will.

 
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« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2012, 06:42:38 PM »

Qawe,

Why do you think the process of Papal election and the subsequent lottery was godly? I am just curious.

They got rid of the self-seeking bishops who were campaigning for the papacy.
I think everyone was happy for the elimination of two specific dangerous candidates that they overlooked the serious flaw in the whole process and the 1957 bylaws. We were just happy to have anyone but these two. This is an emotional position and has nothing to do with principles.

In any case, it is over. Anba Bachomius got his right hand man and sincere disciple elected ( no conflict of interest suggested  Smiley) and one has to appreciate his intelligence and strong will.

 
Amen!
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« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2012, 08:00:29 PM »

Qawe,

Why do you think the process of Papal election and the subsequent lottery was godly? I am just curious.

They got rid of the self-seeking bishops who were campaigning for the papacy.
I think everyone was happy for the elimination of two specific dangerous candidates that they overlooked the serious flaw in the whole process and the 1957 bylaws. We were just happy to have anyone but these two. This is an emotional position and has nothing to do with principles.

In any case, it is over. Anba Bachomius got his right hand man and sincere disciple elected ( no conflict of interest suggested  Smiley) and one has to appreciate his intelligence and strong will.

 

Yes, I see what you mean.
But are you suggesting the altar lot was rigged?
btw I have another theory about this: Anba Tawadros' ball was directly opposite the boy, such that the other two balls were shielded from being chosen by the curvature of the cup.  This is supported by the fact that Anba Bakhomious didn't really shuffle the balls before the lot; he just turned them quite slowly clockwise, and then very slowly anti-clockwise again.  He could easily have positioned the ball in that way.
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« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2012, 09:40:58 PM »

 Roll Eyes
Qawe,

Why do you think the process of Papal election and the subsequent lottery was godly? I am just curious.

They got rid of the self-seeking bishops who were campaigning for the papacy.
I think everyone was happy for the elimination of two specific dangerous candidates that they overlooked the serious flaw in the whole process and the 1957 bylaws. We were just happy to have anyone but these two. This is an emotional position and has nothing to do with principles.

In any case, it is over. Anba Bachomius got his right hand man and sincere disciple elected ( no conflict of interest suggested  Smiley) and one has to appreciate his intelligence and strong will.

 

Yes, I see what you mean.
But are you suggesting the altar lot was rigged?
btw I have another theory about this: Anba Tawadros' ball was directly opposite the boy, such that the other two balls were shielded from being chosen by the curvature of the cup.  This is supported by the fact that Anba Bakhomious didn't really shuffle the balls before the lot; he just turned them quite slowly clockwise, and then very slowly anti-clockwise again.  He could easily have positioned the ball in that way.
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« Reply #25 on: November 04, 2012, 09:51:22 PM »

Roll Eyes
Qawe,

Why do you think the process of Papal election and the subsequent lottery was godly? I am just curious.

They got rid of the self-seeking bishops who were campaigning for the papacy.
I think everyone was happy for the elimination of two specific dangerous candidates that they overlooked the serious flaw in the whole process and the 1957 bylaws. We were just happy to have anyone but these two. This is an emotional position and has nothing to do with principles.

In any case, it is over. Anba Bachomius got his right hand man and sincere disciple elected ( no conflict of interest suggested  Smiley) and one has to appreciate his intelligence and strong will.

 

Yes, I see what you mean.
But are you suggesting the altar lot was rigged?
btw I have another theory about this: Anba Tawadros' ball was directly opposite the boy, such that the other two balls were shielded from being chosen by the curvature of the cup.  This is supported by the fact that Anba Bakhomious didn't really shuffle the balls before the lot; he just turned them quite slowly clockwise, and then very slowly anti-clockwise again.  He could easily have positioned the ball in that way.

Isn't it possible though?  Smiley
« Last Edit: November 04, 2012, 09:52:07 PM by qawe » Logged
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« Reply #26 on: November 04, 2012, 11:15:00 PM »

Come on man...don't be the one to start spreading conspiracy ideas of the lottery.  Just accept what's done, and pray this election system is done differently in the future.  Besides, I am quite please with the smooth transition by HE Metropolitan Bakhomious, and I think he should be hailed and supremely respected for his leadership.  The fact that his spiritual son is chosen is pleasing enough, even if he's not the one you wished was Pope.  May God grant His Holiness Pope Tawadros II many peaceful years and great wisdom of guidance in these trying times.
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« Reply #27 on: November 04, 2012, 11:29:01 PM »

Come on man...don't be the one to start spreading conspiracy ideas of the lottery.  Just accept what's done, and pray this election system is done differently in the future.  Besides, I am quite please with the smooth transition by HE Metropolitan Bakhomious, and I think he should be hailed and supremely respected for his leadership.  The fact that his spiritual son is chosen is pleasing enough, even if he's not the one you wished was Pope.  May God grant His Holiness Pope Tawadros II many peaceful years and great wisdom of guidance in these trying times.

Of course I will accept the result - who am I not to?  I can only hope for the future that the security measures will actually be watertight and not just a charade (no-one was ever going to tamper with the lottery when it was on the altar in full view of everyone and on TV, so why all this fuss on the unimportant bits, when the balls weren't even shuffled properly.)
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« Reply #28 on: November 05, 2012, 12:28:01 AM »

The video of the little boy picking the name is here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XVhHPV0p8k&feature=player_embedded

The poor kid seems so nervous!   Smiley

I didn't see anything that looks suspicious going on.  The boy's hand was guided to the chalice because he was blindfolded.  Once his hand was at the chalice it was on its own, and I didn't see anything about the balls or the way they were positioned that would have put one in a more favorable position than the others.

Goodness gracious, I thought Armenians were bad when it came to dreaming up conspiracy theories.   Cheesy
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« Reply #29 on: November 05, 2012, 07:52:13 AM »

So, what do you all think about Pope Tawadros, apart from the election process? I mean, how was he doing so far as a general bishop? Any comments on his theology? Any prospects how he will act as pope?
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« Reply #30 on: November 05, 2012, 12:32:16 PM »

So, what do you all think about Pope Tawadros, apart from the election process? I mean, how was he doing so far as a general bishop? Any comments on his theology? Any prospects how he will act as pope?
He is virtually unknown outside the diocese of Beheira.  So at this moment he is a mystery. The extent of him being known elsewhere is that he was interviewed in a children's program in the American Coptic channel CYC.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghhTzhCr6C4&feature=plcp
« Last Edit: November 05, 2012, 12:53:51 PM by minasoliman » Logged

Vain existence can never exist, for \\\"unless the LORD builds the house, the builders labor in vain.\\\" (Psalm 127)

If the faith is unchanged and rock solid, then the gates of Hades never prevailed in the end.
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