OrthodoxChristianity.net
November 20, 2014, 05:33:32 PM *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News: Reminder: No political discussions in the public fora.  If you do not have access to the private Politics Forum, please send a PM to Fr. George.
 
   Home   Help Calendar Contact Treasury Tags Login Register  
Pages: 1   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: Who will win the Election?  (Read 3294 times) Average Rating: 0
0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
TomS
Banned
Archon
********
Offline Offline

Faith: Orthodox
Jurisdiction: GOA
Posts: 3,186


"Look At Me! Look At Me Now! " - Bono


« on: November 01, 2004, 10:09:46 AM »

1) Pick the candidate that you REALLY feel will win -- which may NOT be the one YOU will vote for.

2) Due to the BAN on Political DISCUSSIONS, please just PICK a candidate.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2004, 10:42:12 AM by Tom+ú » Logged
spiros
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 158

OC.net


« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2004, 12:29:23 AM »

I noticed one vote for "other" as of 11:20. Since the question was "who do you think will win" I would love to know who voted for "other", and who that "other" candidate might be ?

Signed,

Genuinely Curious in Plain Grove
Logged

Official Resident of 5th Century Cyprus
Jakub
Archon
********
Offline Offline

Posts: 2,748



« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2004, 02:14:53 AM »

Packers/Redskins game results predicts JK.

JB
Logged

An old timer is a man who's had a lot of interesting experiences -- some of them true.

Grant me the senility to forget the people I never liked anyway, the good fortune to run into the ones I do, and the eyesight to tell the difference.
JoeS
(aka StMarkEofE)
Site Supporter
OC.net guru
*****
Offline Offline

Faith: Orthodox Catholic
Jurisdiction: OCA
Posts: 1,122


Global Warming Enthusiast.


« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2004, 09:58:01 AM »

Not so fast here. Remember the Washington Redskins were playing IN DC when this trend started. This last game was played in their new stadium in MARYLAND.  Gotcha!

JoeS

//Packers/Redskins game results predicts JK.

JB//
Logged
TomS
Banned
Archon
********
Offline Offline

Faith: Orthodox
Jurisdiction: GOA
Posts: 3,186


"Look At Me! Look At Me Now! " - Bono


« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2004, 07:50:18 PM »

Okay. 7 PM the first polls are closing. Locking thread.
Logged
TomS
Banned
Archon
********
Offline Offline

Faith: Orthodox
Jurisdiction: GOA
Posts: 3,186


"Look At Me! Look At Me Now! " - Bono


« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2004, 07:43:45 PM »

Canada v2.0
Logged
Nacho
OC.net guru
*******
Offline Offline

Faith: EasternOrthodox
Jurisdiction: OCA
Posts: 1,482

The face of Corporate America


« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2004, 08:03:20 PM »

LoL....saw that on a leftist website. I beleive it was democraticundergound.com....Some of the most delusional people I have ever seen from reading the post over there.
Logged

"If I find in myself a desire which no experience in this world can satisfy, the most probable explanation is that I was made for another world."--Mere Christianity
Bono Vox
The Orthodox Bagpiper
OC.net guru
*******
Offline Offline

Faith: Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: Orthodox Church in America
Posts: 1,620



« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2004, 01:29:11 AM »

Good observation nacho.

I had no doubt that George W Bush would win; I am amazed at what a strong victory it was. I guess the country is not as divided as we thought.

Election night was fun. We had an election night party with some of our friends from our Orthodox church here in town. We were discussing passages from "Christ the eternal Tao" as we were watching the results.

Towards the end of the night (as well as the begining of the night) we all celebrated with some alchaholic beverages when it became clear that our man was going to win.

Too all of my Orthodox bretheren here who voted for President Bush, I toast some ouzo to you!!!

Hopa!!

Bagpiper
Logged

Troparion - Tone 1:
O Sebastian, spurning the assemblies of the wicked,You gathered the wise martyrs Who with you cast down the enemy; And standing worthily before the throne of God, You gladden those who cry to you:Glory to him who has strengthened you! Glory to him who has granted you a crown!
Nacho
OC.net guru
*******
Offline Offline

Faith: EasternOrthodox
Jurisdiction: OCA
Posts: 1,482

The face of Corporate America


« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2004, 04:04:40 AM »

Quote
Good observation nacho

I'm glad someone on this forum thinks so... Cool


Quote
I had no doubt that George W Bush would win; I am amazed at what a strong victory it was. I guess the country is not as divided as we thought.

I agree, not nearly divided as the MSM makes it out to be. If you take a look at an election map, it's mostly all red. The majority of us are united Cheesy

Quote
Election night was fun. We had an election night party with some of our friends from our Orthodox church here in town. We were discussing passages from "Christ the eternal Tao" as we were watching the results.

Wish I could have been there....I was alone with Jack Daniels & quite a nervous wreck  Embarrassed Good thing it turned out good.
Logged

"If I find in myself a desire which no experience in this world can satisfy, the most probable explanation is that I was made for another world."--Mere Christianity
Fr. David
The Poster Formerly Known as "Pedro"
Archon
********
Offline Offline

Faith: Eastern Orthodox
Jurisdiction: OCA, Diocese of the South
Posts: 2,828



WWW
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2004, 07:01:03 AM »

I had no doubt that George W Bush would win; I am amazed at what a strong victory it was. I guess the country is not as divided as we thought.

The map may have been red, but many states just barely so...a "whopping" 3 1/2 million votes separated the two out of over 90 million votes...the final percentage of the popular vote was, what, 51% W, 49% Kerry nationwide?

Oh, yeah, we're not divided at all...  Roll Eyes
Logged

Priest in the Orthodox Church in America - ordained on March 18, 2012

Oh Taste and See (my defunct blog)

From Protestant to Orthodox (my conversion story)
Nacho
OC.net guru
*******
Offline Offline

Faith: EasternOrthodox
Jurisdiction: OCA
Posts: 1,482

The face of Corporate America


« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2004, 12:13:27 PM »

Quote
The map may have been red, but many states just barely so...a "whopping" 3 1/2 million votes separated the two out of over 90 million votes...the final percentage of the popular vote was, what, 51% W, 49% Kerry nationwide?

Oh, yeah, we're not divided at all...  

Pedro, take a look at this county by county nationwide election map. It looks like over 80% of the counties are red to me:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/countymap.htm

Also, the 3 1/2 million gap will  widen to over 5 million once all the absentee & military ballots are counted. It hasn't been since George Bush Sr. in 1988 that any candidate has captured over 50% of the vote. Clinton got only 43%, so this is a clear mandate! Even more impresive, this is the most votes ever for a presidential candidate & not since FDR in 1936 has one party captured the white house along with gaining in the senate & house which is very rare. On top of these facts, it's amazing W did so well considering that all the MSM was against him & hundreds of millions were spent trying to defeat him from the likes of George Soros & the Michael Moore-ons...
Logged

"If I find in myself a desire which no experience in this world can satisfy, the most probable explanation is that I was made for another world."--Mere Christianity
Strelets
Стрелец
Elder
*****
Offline Offline

Faith: Orthodox
Jurisdiction: OCA
Posts: 444


« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2004, 12:35:13 PM »

I believe the hand wringing over being "divided" is frivolous at best.  We have elections on the premise that society is divided between competing groups, and a vote is necessary to determine which direction to follow.  It's really not the job of the winner to adopt the loser's platform.  The loser has to come to grips that most of the nation didn't accept their platform, and move on, either by articulating their message better or dumping the planks in the platform that are pass+¬.  Kennedy won the national election by about 100,000 votes, and Carter won by a mere .1% of the vote, yet no one on the left calls them divisive figures.  Since LBJ's landslide win in 1964, only Republicans have won decisive victories in presidential elections.  Clinton never won a majority, and I don't remember anyone in the old media saying he had to "reach across the aisle"; in fact, I remember in his first two years he frequently trashed Republicans in speeches, and blamed the previous Reagan/Bush administrations for his troubles.  Bush has done neither of those things.  Not once did he give a speech trashing Democrats as a party, nor did he blame Clinton for leaving the country vulnerable to terrorist attack.

With the exception of Clinton's election on a centrist platform, we have twenty solid years of elections where voters rejected "divisive" class warfare arguments and pacifist solutions to our country's problems.  Rather than constantly complaining afterwards that the people are just stupid, it'd be prudent for the left to decide whether they are offering anything new, and whether the problem might be with them and not the voters.

The truth is, the left needs to come to grips that the pacifist, anti-American wing of their organization is destroying them, and if they want to ever regain credibility in the arena of ideas on the national stage, they'll have to jettison the "hate America and its values" albatross of shrill negativity around their necks, and return to the pre-1968 Democratic Party.  It's a tall task, considering that the 1968-1974 crowd is running the show.  Ask yourselves, why you haven't been able to win a decisive presidential election since LBJ in 1964.  The answer is clear, but it's a tough wake-up call for a small group of people who are stuck in the fog of a groovy bong complex.
Logged

"The creed is very simple, and here is what it is: to believe that there is nothing more beautiful, more courageous, and more perfect than Christ; and there not only isn't, but I tell myself with a jealous love, there cannot be." ~ Fyodor Dostoevsky
Fr. David
The Poster Formerly Known as "Pedro"
Archon
********
Offline Offline

Faith: Eastern Orthodox
Jurisdiction: OCA, Diocese of the South
Posts: 2,828



WWW
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2004, 02:31:20 PM »

Pedro, take a look at this county by county nationwide election map. It looks like over 80% of the counties are red to me:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/countymap.htm

Yes, but not all counties are populated equally.  Red may cover far more surface area than blue does, but large parts of it are VERY sparsely populated.  Just think: it took ALL those red counties to equal the number of "blue votes" in the other counties.  All that, and the most they can claim as a mandate is (according to your estimates) 5 million.  OUT OF 90 MILLION PLUS.  As you said,

Quote
It hasn't been since George Bush Sr. in 1988 that any candidate has captured over 50% of the vote. Clinton got only 43%, so this is a clear mandate!

Yes, but 49% of the voters -- who turned out in record numbers this election -- voted that they wanted Bush OUT.  This, to me, is not a mandate.  Reagan's landslide victory in '84, now THAT was a mandate.  This is barely half of the country saying they want something.

Kennedy won the national election by about 100,000 votes, and Carter won by a mere .1% of the vote, yet no one on the left calls them divisive figures.

I do...the Vietnam war divided this country in a huge way!  And Carter, well, we can all see how effective a president he was anyway....

Quote
Not once did he give a speech trashing Democrats as a party, nor did he blame Clinton for leaving the country vulnerable to terrorist attack.

Sure...he didn't have a huge deficit to deal with, nor did he hold all the blame for not dealing with radical muslim terrorists soon enough; that started w/Reagan and Bush Sr.

Quote
With the exception of Clinton's election on a centrist platform, we have twenty solid years of elections where voters rejected "divisive" class warfare arguments and pacifist solutions to our country's problems.

So, in other words, out of those twenty "solid" years of no class warfare, almost half of them were under Clinton...how is that consistency?

Quote
Rather than constantly complaining afterwards that the people are just stupid, it'd be prudent for the left to decide whether they are offering anything new, and whether the problem might be with them and not the voters.

Hey, they managed to pull almost half of the voters to their cause; I wouldn't rule them out just yet.

Quote
The truth is, the left needs to...jettison the "hate America and its values" albatross of shrill negativity around their necks...it's a tough wake-up call for a small group of people who are stuck in the fog of a groovy bong complex.

Ah...isn't it fun to dismiss through stereotype?...this would be like saying "the right needs to get over their 'everyone else in the world is less than we are' kind of ignorance that isolates them from the rest of the world...it's a tough call for a small group of rednecks who are stuck in the illusion of a small-minded, gun-nut tailgate party."

I don't believe the latter; it's sad that some people actually believe the former.
Logged

Priest in the Orthodox Church in America - ordained on March 18, 2012

Oh Taste and See (my defunct blog)

From Protestant to Orthodox (my conversion story)
Strelets
Стрелец
Elder
*****
Offline Offline

Faith: Orthodox
Jurisdiction: OCA
Posts: 444


« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2004, 06:02:51 PM »

Quote
Yes, but 49% of the voters -- who turned out in record numbers this election -- voted that they wanted Bush OUT.

First of all, 49% is less than the majority, and therefore it's irrelevant.  The Constitution provides clearcut standards on what defines a mandate, which is fifty percent plus one.  Secondly, CNN has been listing Kerry at 48%.  I've also just read the latest news on the count totals and Bush is at 52%, Kerry at 47%.  That's a five point spread.  Call it what you want, but the voters have said who they want running the government, in the White House, the Senate, and H of R.

Quote
Quote
Kennedy won the national election by about 100,000 votes, and Carter won by a mere .1% of the vote, yet no one on the left calls them divisive figures.

Pedro thusly:
I do...the Vietnam war divided this country in a huge way!  And Carter, well, we can all see how effective a president he was anyway....

What I wrote was that no one on the left calls Kennedy or Carter divisive Presidents (and Kennedy won with the help of the "dead vote" in Chicago and Texas), or that they should have taken account of the 49.9% of the population who voted against them.  I don't even hear the right calling them such, either.

Quote
Sure...he didn't have a huge deficit to deal with, nor did he hold all the blame for not dealing with radical muslim terrorists soon enough; that started w/Reagan and Bush Sr.

But Bill Jeff knew about the deficit long before he was elected and yet, he still chose to make those expensive promises.  What he realized once in office, thankfully, is that the magical top 2% can't pay for the utopian Christmas list.

Quote
Ah...isn't it fun to dismiss through stereotype?...this would be like saying "the right needs to get over their 'everyone else in the world is less than we are' kind of ignorance that isolates them from the rest of the world...it's a tough call for a small group of rednecks who are stuck in the illusion of a small-minded, gun-nut tailgate party."

That's part of the point.  The rednecks with guns outnumber by far the peaceniks with bongs.  I'm merely pointing out the sicheeashun - if you believe in the suicidal ideal of absolutist pacifism, then by all means stick to your principles.  Just do everyone a favor by following it consistently and oppose wars like that against Yugoslavia and stop saber rattling for military action against Haiti and Liberia and Sudan whenever they show a kid crying on TV, military action that inevitably results in innocent civilian deaths which you would say invalidates any military action.  Also realize you're going to continue losing the big elections.  Most regular folks are sensible enough to realize it's the evil nature of the wolves that leads them to attack us and not our inability to understand the nuances of wolfish grievances.
Logged

"The creed is very simple, and here is what it is: to believe that there is nothing more beautiful, more courageous, and more perfect than Christ; and there not only isn't, but I tell myself with a jealous love, there cannot be." ~ Fyodor Dostoevsky
Strelets
Стрелец
Elder
*****
Offline Offline

Faith: Orthodox
Jurisdiction: OCA
Posts: 444


« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2004, 06:07:01 PM »

Gotta ask... how much longer are you mods going to let us break the rules?  Grin
Logged

"The creed is very simple, and here is what it is: to believe that there is nothing more beautiful, more courageous, and more perfect than Christ; and there not only isn't, but I tell myself with a jealous love, there cannot be." ~ Fyodor Dostoevsky
Robert
"Amazing"
Archon
********
Offline Offline

Posts: 2,442



« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2004, 07:05:22 PM »

Man, ya'll bitch when we close the threads and now you bitch that we keep 'em open Wink

just playing

R Tongue
Logged
Bono Vox
The Orthodox Bagpiper
OC.net guru
*******
Offline Offline

Faith: Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: Orthodox Church in America
Posts: 1,620



« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2004, 08:04:39 PM »

I like this thread, I hope that we keep it open.

Now that America has spoken, it is a time to celebrate!!!!!
Logged

Troparion - Tone 1:
O Sebastian, spurning the assemblies of the wicked,You gathered the wise martyrs Who with you cast down the enemy; And standing worthily before the throne of God, You gladden those who cry to you:Glory to him who has strengthened you! Glory to him who has granted you a crown!
Fr. David
The Poster Formerly Known as "Pedro"
Archon
********
Offline Offline

Faith: Eastern Orthodox
Jurisdiction: OCA, Diocese of the South
Posts: 2,828



WWW
« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2004, 10:54:20 PM »

First of all, 49% is less than the majority, and therefore it's irrelevant.  The Constitution provides clearcut standards on what defines a mandate, which is fifty percent plus one.

Where in the Constitution does it define a mandate? (this isn't a challenge; I really don't know).  I've always heard the term "mandate" used when a candidate's win is in double digits or so.

Quote
What I wrote was that no one on the left calls Kennedy or Carter divisive Presidents (and Kennedy won with the help of the "dead vote" in Chicago and Texas), or that they should have taken account of the 49.9% of the population who voted against them.

Sorry about the misinterpretation; the word "figures" got put with your statistics.  But why wouldn't someone take notice of the fact that they just won a very close and hotly contested race?  I would think that W could see that there are a LOT of folks out there who are plenty cheesed off that he's in for four more.

Quote
But Bill Jeff knew about the deficit long before he was elected and yet, he still chose to make those expensive promises.  What he realized once in office, thankfully, is that the magical top 2% can't pay for the utopian Christmas list.

Yes, thankfully he did.  Which was one of the things I hated hearing from Kerry -- NO ONE can promise to raise taxes on JUST the upper 2% and pay for what needs to be paid for.

Quote
That's part of the point.  The rednecks with guns outnumber by far the peaceniks with bongs.

And somewhere in the middle lie all of the rest of us, who lean (as opposed to set up camp) in one direction or the other.  All of the people who supported Kerry because of the "sicheeashun" (Grin) in Iraq are not necessarily "peaceniks" who ascribe to "absolutist pacifism"; this is not a "war all the time or never again" deal here.  We're not all trying to coddle Al-Q; we know they're insane and need to be hunted down and killed like dogs in the street (at least, many Democrats do).  We just think there's a wiser plan of attack.  That's all.

Quote
Also realize you're going to continue losing the big elections.

Just like Clinton lost to Bush Sr.  Yeah.  I gotta remember that.
Logged

Priest in the Orthodox Church in America - ordained on March 18, 2012

Oh Taste and See (my defunct blog)

From Protestant to Orthodox (my conversion story)
Strelets
Стрелец
Elder
*****
Offline Offline

Faith: Orthodox
Jurisdiction: OCA
Posts: 444


« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2004, 11:19:00 PM »

Quote
Just like Clinton lost to Bush Sr.  Yeah.  I gotta remember that.

Yeah, yeah.  Well, ok.  History will not forbid you that tidbit of consolation. Grin  I still get a warm sensation reminiscing President Taylor's defeat of Lewis Cass.
Logged

"The creed is very simple, and here is what it is: to believe that there is nothing more beautiful, more courageous, and more perfect than Christ; and there not only isn't, but I tell myself with a jealous love, there cannot be." ~ Fyodor Dostoevsky
Stavro
Warned
OC.net guru
*******
Offline Offline

Faith: Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: Coptic Orthodox
Posts: 1,230



« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2004, 04:50:08 AM »

Quote
Not once did he give a speech trashing Democrats as a party, nor did he blame Clinton for leaving the country vulnerable to terrorist attack.
How did CLinton leave the country vulnerable to a terrorist attack ? This is one of Karl Rove's brainwashing slogans that are unsubstaintiated. I think it is not a republican or a democrate problem or weakness, the picture is bigger than that.

Terrorism is a problem the Western hemishere did promote in a way or another.
In Egypt, for example, during the 50's and 60's there was the regime of Nasser who was hostile to America and belonged to the Soviet Camp, but he annihalted the Islamic Brotherhood. This group has been the source and the Godfather figure of Jihad since 1928. Because of this, there were no islamic terror attacks.

WHen Saddat took over in 1970, he went to the West. He encouraged islamic groups to fight communism or  commo-socialism, with the blessing of the West and specially the USA. He persecuted christians in Egypt, and he promoted the fundamentalists ideas, with the backing of the USA because he was perceived as a moderate. Saddat himself was killed in 1981 by the islamists, thanks God, but it did not send any warning to the US or the West.

The same happened with the Shah in Iran, in Afghanistan, in ALgeria, in Lebanon. The US sided with the wrong party all the time. Not out of treason, no, but out of error in calculation. The damage is already done and it cannot be contained in a couple of strikes on camps in Sudan or with a war on the most secular state in the Arabic World.

Omar Abd El-Rahman, who was the mastermind in the killing of Saddat, took refuge in the USA.  Huh The egyptian government asked many times from the US government to hand him over, the US refused. He then expressed his gratitude to the US by the first WTC attack in 1993.

It is not a democrate or arepublican problem, it is the mind set of the West.

Europe has sold its heritage and now 10% of France is muslim. It is not a coincidence. Those who read arabic and are familiar with the arabic islamic literature in the last years, will now that the source of all the new era fundametalists terror strategies are several books by islamic leader, maybe the most important book is a book by Said Kutb, an egyptian islamic leader who was killed in 1965 in Egypt by President Nasser, named :" Signs on the road." He admits in this book that there is no way muslim will catch up with the West. So, he encourages muslims to immigrate to the West, reproduce, and be a majority. He instructs to use the famous political approach in Islam to show the true intentions only when in power.

I thought it is helpful to present the above to show the magnitude of the problem. If the war was on Iran or Saudis or Syria, countries who support terrorism, then it would be different. But Iraq ?  Sad Saddam was a butcher but secular.

Another thing: Doesn't the war on terrorism need resources ? Will a weak economy like the current economy of the US support military efforts worldwide?

Questions to ponder.
Stavro

Logged

In that day there will be an altar to the LORD in the heart of Egypt, and a monument to the LORD at its border. (Isaiah 19:19)

" God forbid I should see the face of Judah or listen to his blasphemy" (Gerontius, Archmanidrite of the monastery of St. Melania)
Nacho
OC.net guru
*******
Offline Offline

Faith: EasternOrthodox
Jurisdiction: OCA
Posts: 1,482

The face of Corporate America


« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2004, 04:54:00 AM »

Quote
Just like Clinton lost to Bush Sr.  Yeah.  I gotta remember that

Uhhh, Bush Sr. would have probably beat Clinton if it weren't for a wacky third party candidate pulling 20% of the vote from him. The left is in big big trouble in the future if they don't have another one of these 3rd party types to draw a good portion of the votes away from the republican. I don't see them winning any elections for along time, especially with the recent chatter of shrillery running in 08' which would be even more of a disaster for them. If they were smart, they would run a conservative likable democrat like Evan Bayh of Indiana but appearantly common sense hasn't been a factor in the democratic party of late. Hell, I think even a guy like Joe Lieberman could have had a good chance against Bush, it's too bad they shut him down early in the primaries because he didn't pander to all the leftist groups.

On another positive note, not one senatorial republican seat is vulnerable in the 2006 elections while there are about 5 vulnerable seats for the democrats. This is such great news because we will probably get over 60 republican senators & that's an operational majority!!! This means no more filibusters on Bush's pro life nominees to the courts!!! I hope he brings up Miguel Estrada back for an appointment & stack all the courts with young pro life constitutionalist & there is nothing left will be able to do about it lol  Cheesy Cheesy I can just imagine the screams & hatred coming from the likes of NARAL & Planned Parenthood hehe.   Grin man, it's going to be a great 4 years to come because when the left is out of power this is when they get really crazy Smiley
Logged

"If I find in myself a desire which no experience in this world can satisfy, the most probable explanation is that I was made for another world."--Mere Christianity
Brendan03
High Elder
******
Offline Offline

Posts: 544



« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2004, 09:07:42 AM »

I think that W has as much a claim to have a "mandate" as any other recent President has.  He won a broad election with a very large turnout by a significant margin, achieved more than 50% of the popular vote for the first time since 88 (it bears remembering that Pres. Clinton, despite his high favorables numbers, never won 50% of the PV) and increased his party's majorities in the house and the senate, trashing the other party's senate leader in the process.  Yes, 48% didn't vote for W, but I don't think that means you don't have a mandate.  The country as a whole handed W and the Republicans a substantial victory on Tuesday.  The polling results were initially misread, as usual.  As it turns out, the number of evangelical voters was pretty much the same as in 2000, and only slightly more of them voted Republican in 04 than in 00.  The real shift was among hispanics (W won 44% in 04 and only 35% in 00) and white women (W won 55% in 04, up from 49% in 00).  The exit polling question about values voters was vague and misleading (everyone votes based on their values!! duh!!) and is leading people to conclude that the election result was basically a national referendum on gay marriage and hence not a mandate of any kind relating to W's policy agenda.  The reality is that the religion-based voters had a significant impact, but not a drastically more significant impact than in 00, and it appears likely that the majority that W built here is broader.  So I think the Republicans have the right to say that they have been given a mandate of sorts this time, regardless of whether one likes that or not.

The Democrats, for their part, have to decide what they are going to be, as a party, in national elections.  For the first time in a long time, the number of registered republicans is roughly equal to the number of registered democrats (the Dems have generally had a substantial lead), and the number of voters IDing themselves as conservative really outpaces those who ID as liberal by 34% to 21%.  The reality behind these numbers is that the country really *is* trending more republican AND more conservative at the same time, which makes it hard for the democrats to win if they are perceived as the "liberal" party.  Sure, one can look at 04 and say, no big deal the democrats lost because of a 130,000 votes in Ohio ... but the reality is that there is broader shift in the electorate going on here.  W gained votes in almost every state over 2000, including in the blue states.  If the Democrats don't address this, things will be difficult going forward in national elections.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2004, 09:23:22 AM by Brendan03 » Logged

B
Bono Vox
The Orthodox Bagpiper
OC.net guru
*******
Offline Offline

Faith: Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: Orthodox Church in America
Posts: 1,620



« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2004, 10:50:32 AM »

Quote
Uhhh, Bush Sr. would have probably beat Clinton if it weren't for a wacky third party candidate pulling 20% of the vote from him

You are right nacho. Dick Morris, Clinton's former political adviser for over 20 years said that if it had not been for Ross Perot, Bush would have soundly defeated Clinton.
Logged

Troparion - Tone 1:
O Sebastian, spurning the assemblies of the wicked,You gathered the wise martyrs Who with you cast down the enemy; And standing worthily before the throne of God, You gladden those who cry to you:Glory to him who has strengthened you! Glory to him who has granted you a crown!
Tags:
Pages: 1   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.18 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.096 seconds with 49 queries.