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Author Topic: Link builds between weather extremes and warming  (Read 3527 times) Average Rating: 0
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« on: March 28, 2012, 12:09:32 AM »

Quote
(Reuters) - Extreme weather events over the past decade have increased and were "very likely" caused by manmade global warming, a study in the journal Nature Climate Change said on Sunday.

Scientists at Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Research used physics, statistical analysis and computer simulations to link extreme rainfall and heat waves to global warming. The link between warming and storms was less clear.

"It is very likely that several of the unprecedented extremes of the past decade would not have occurred without anthropogenic global warming," said the study.

The past decade was probably the warmest globally for at least a millennium. Last year was the eleventh hottest on record, the World Meteorological Organization said on Friday.
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« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2012, 12:16:16 AM »

Last year for me was extremely unusual weather wise, we had a very mild winter but a ton of rain dumped on us in the summer. Thank God because I can't stand the snow. It's March now and we are hitting like 80 degree temps, it's insane. I live in CO...
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« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2012, 12:17:18 AM »

There are a lot of probablies and most likelies with a jump to conclusions. Then again, it is important that we cut our "carbon footprint" so we can stop global warming on Mars.
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« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2012, 12:20:08 AM »

There are a lot of probablies and most likelies with a jump to conclusions. Then again, it is important that we cut our "carbon footprint" so we can stop global warming on Mars.
You're not a scientist. Al Gore is though.
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« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2012, 12:30:42 AM »

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Scientists...used physics, statistical analysis and computer simulations

...

It is very likely

With evidence like that, who could disagree. Roll Eyes

They may or may not be right, heck, they probably are, but it really doesn't matter. Until their models and algorithms are subjected to more public scrutiny, are presented in a falsifiable manner, and can demonstrate strong predictive ability this is a non-issue. Regardless of whether or not they're right, they haven't demonstrated that their work deserves to be taken seriously.
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« Reply #5 on: March 28, 2012, 01:16:17 AM »

Yes, GIGO is a big problem with computer simulations.
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« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2012, 01:44:38 AM »

It's junk science. With heavy overtones of politics, money grants, taxation plans, social engineering, and "creating a narrative."

Meh.
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« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2012, 02:47:51 AM »

It's junk science. With heavy overtones of politics, money grants, taxation plans, social engineering, and "creating a narrative."

Meh.


Certainly not, more people need to attend college courses on geoscience and learn about our planet and what we are doing to it.
More people also need to read books like "The Long Emergency" rather than buying into the filth that Fox News decides to feed them.

Even listen to Patriarch Bartholomew and other figures who speak out about our environment.

This year, we barely had a winter, we have barely had a spring so far (it's been more like summer).

Global climate change is a reality and even if part of it is natural, we are undoubtably making it worse.

Only those who listen to Faux News and refuse to pick up a real science book would be so foolish to deny that we are harming our environment severely. It's all a part of the absolute idiocy of the American mindset. We're fat, selfish, stupid, gluttonous, arrogant and willfully ignorant. We believe it's our duty to live as we want and to force our lifestyle on others like we are the adherents of a religion of hedonism trying to convert infidels to our gluttony.

Europe gets it, while Western Europe is morally and religiously compromised, they are still thinking clearly when it comes to science and our environment. They live far more sustainable lifestyles than we do, they didn't destroy their sustainable cities, and yet they still manage to fight to lower their impact on the environment.

The future will look at us in scorn and with hatred because of how ignorant we've chosen to be about our role as God-ordained protectors and stewards of the world.
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« Reply #8 on: March 28, 2012, 02:49:44 AM »

This year, we barely had a winter, we have barely had a spring so far (it's been more like summer).
Where do you live? Because that's exactly what's it like here.
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« Reply #9 on: March 28, 2012, 02:57:26 AM »

This year, we barely had a winter, we have barely had a spring so far (it's been more like summer).
Where do you live? Because that's exactly what's it like here.

The Midwest
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« Reply #10 on: March 28, 2012, 09:21:40 AM »

This is where I am skeptical:

1. That human activity causes global warming, as opposed to natural processes.
2. That global warming is a bad thing. (Consider the explosion of wealth and culture after the MWP.)

We learned this week that the Medieval Warm Period was global, not just confined to the North Atlantic, proving the entire globe can warm and cool apart from human influence.

I think the panic over global warming is ignorance of history. The planet has been far hotter and far colder than it is now, even during mankind's existence. Why should we say that the climate of 1950 is the ideal that we must maintain at all costs?

Polluting groundwater and burning down rainforests is a lot bigger environmental concern to me than global warming.

I also live in the Midwest, and this winter was wonderful. I don't have to move to the tropics anymore.
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« Reply #11 on: March 28, 2012, 09:31:36 AM »

It's junk science. With heavy overtones of politics, money grants, taxation plans, social engineering, and "creating a narrative."

Meh.


Certainly not, more people need to attend college courses on geoscience and learn about our planet and what we are doing to it.
More people also need to read books like "The Long Emergency" rather than buying into the filth that Fox News decides to feed them.

Your first problem is you assume too much to support your own beliefs.
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« Reply #12 on: March 28, 2012, 11:03:23 AM »

Quote
More people also need to read books like "The Long Emergency" rather than buying into the filth that Fox News decides to feed them
So it was Fox News that made those emails that got leaked where even the "scientists" doing the research stated how made up their "proof" was? Wow. brit Hume is better than I thought  Roll Eyes

Quote
Global climate change is a reality and even if part of it is natural, we are undoubtably making it worse
I can agree that we're not helping things, but to say humanity is THE major cause is ridiculous.

Quote
It's junk science. With heavy overtones of politics, money grants, taxation plans, social engineering, and "creating a narrative."
I'd agree with the overtones (not them in particular, but that they are being shoved down out throats), and there is alot of bunk science being presented, but there is something going on.

Quote
Even listen to Patriarch Bartholomew and other figures who speak out about our environment
I am glad the EP is talking about it, but I think he has much bigger concerns that should take up the majority of his time.


Quote
Polluting groundwater and burning down rainforests is a lot bigger environmental concern to me than global warming
Ah, but not as big of a money-grabbing venture, so.......


Quote
Al Gore
I find it funny every time that moron opens his trap. Ask anyone in Tennessee what they think of the guy. They know he is a fraud. Take a look at his house. That thing is about as energy efficient as ice skating up a hill. Or how he flies around in the most wasteful personal jet made, shaking his finger at folks about pollution. All the while cashing in those checks for "carbon offsets" that he sells. This guy is a complete fraud and should never be considered seriously about anything.

PP
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« Reply #13 on: March 28, 2012, 11:08:17 AM »

I think the panic over global warming is ignorance of history. The planet has been far hotter and far colder than it is now, even during mankind's existence. Why should we say that the climate of 1950 is the ideal that we must maintain at all costs?

I worry about things like agriculture being devastated, particularly in poorer areas of the world where people don't have a solution to this other than migrating somewhere else. Also, I'm pretty sure climate scientists--for all their speculation, bias, and posturing--have forgotten more about the history of the subject than anyone on this thread will ever know. Except GIC, I never assume to assume what he knows...  Grin
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« Reply #14 on: March 28, 2012, 11:42:32 AM »

This is where I am skeptical:

1. That human activity causes global warming, as opposed to natural processes.

Human activity is a natural process.

When will this ever end?
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« Reply #15 on: March 28, 2012, 12:55:40 PM »

It's junk science. With heavy overtones of politics, money grants, taxation plans, social engineering, and "creating a narrative."

Meh.

Certainly not, more people need to attend college courses on geoscience and learn about our planet and what we are doing to it.
More people also need to read books like "The Long Emergency" rather than buying into the filth that Fox News decides to feed them.

'Physics, statistical analysis and computer simulations' are things I do on a regular basis and the subject of academic articles I regularly read. So in stead of telling me to go back to school...how about just giving me the source code? Why is it such a big deal for a public university doing research using public grants to release their source code? I honestly can't even believe that these 'journals' allow them to publish without supplying it. Once they start acting like scientists, I might treat them like scientists, but for the time being I can only assume that the reason they don't release their source code is because it would not stand up to scrutiny.
 
Quote
Even listen to Patriarch Bartholomew and other figures who speak out about our environment.

This year, we barely had a winter, we have barely had a spring so far (it's been more like summer).

Global climate change is a reality and even if part of it is natural, we are undoubtably making it worse.

Only those who listen to Faux News and refuse to pick up a real science book would be so foolish to deny that we are harming our environment severely. It's all a part of the absolute idiocy of the American mindset. We're fat, selfish, stupid, gluttonous, arrogant and willfully ignorant. We believe it's our duty to live as we want and to force our lifestyle on others like we are the adherents of a religion of hedonism trying to convert infidels to our gluttony.

Europe gets it, while Western Europe is morally and religiously compromised, they are still thinking clearly when it comes to science and our environment. They live far more sustainable lifestyles than we do, they didn't destroy their sustainable cities, and yet they still manage to fight to lower their impact on the environment.

The future will look at us in scorn and with hatred because of how ignorant we've chosen to be about our role as God-ordained protectors and stewards of the world.

And my point is that until they start doing the science correctly, none of the rest of this even matters. If ruining the environment is what it takes to make people do good science, then so be it.
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« Reply #16 on: March 28, 2012, 01:26:49 PM »

This is where I am skeptical:

1. That human activity causes global warming, as opposed to natural processes.
2. That global warming is a bad thing. (Consider the explosion of wealth and culture after the MWP.)

We learned this week that the Medieval Warm Period was global, not just confined to the North Atlantic, proving the entire globe can warm and cool apart from human influence.

I think the panic over global warming is ignorance of history. The planet has been far hotter and far colder than it is now, even during mankind's existence. Why should we say that the climate of 1950 is the ideal that we must maintain at all costs?

Polluting groundwater and burning down rainforests is a lot bigger environmental concern to me than global warming.

I also live in the Midwest, and this winter was wonderful. I don't have to move to the tropics anymore.

That's my biggest concern, we know from paleoclimatology that we have been in a global 'ice age' for the past 50 million years or so and if past weather cycles are any clue (and there's no guarantee they are) we're also due to climb out of this ice age and enter a global warm period.

Now, this may all be coincidence and man may very well be responsible for the latest global warming, but if they want to introduce an extra variable into this equation (human activity) I do believe that they have a very heavy burden of proof. And while they have given indications their assumption might be right, the quality of their research still has a far ways to go before they meet that obligation.

The problem isn't that they're wrong, the problem is that quality of research is not good enough to expect a reasonable person to accept their hypothesis based on the research that has been done to date.
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« Reply #17 on: March 28, 2012, 02:04:22 PM »

It's junk science. With heavy overtones of politics, money grants, taxation plans, social engineering, and "creating a narrative."

Meh.


Certainly not, more people need to attend college courses on geoscience and learn about our planet and what we are doing to it.
More people also need to read books like "The Long Emergency" rather than buying into the filth that Fox News decides to feed them.

Even listen to Patriarch Bartholomew and other figures who speak out about our environment.

This year, we barely had a winter, we have barely had a spring so far (it's been more like summer).

Global climate change is a reality and even if part of it is natural, we are undoubtably making it worse.

Only those who listen to Faux News and refuse to pick up a real science book would be so foolish to deny that we are harming our environment severely. It's all a part of the absolute idiocy of the American mindset. We're fat, selfish, stupid, gluttonous, arrogant and willfully ignorant. We believe it's our duty to live as we want and to force our lifestyle on others like we are the adherents of a religion of hedonism trying to convert infidels to our gluttony.

Europe gets it, while Western Europe is morally and religiously compromised, they are still thinking clearly when it comes to science and our environment. They live far more sustainable lifestyles than we do, they didn't destroy their sustainable cities, and yet they still manage to fight to lower their impact on the environment.

The future will look at us in scorn and with hatred because of how ignorant we've chosen to be about our role as God-ordained protectors and stewards of the world.

I knew from your previous postings that you are a person of certainties. I admire that trait. But, I've got to tell you: you are dead wrong in this instance. Not 60, 70, 80 or 90 per cent wrong, but 99 per cent wrong. You are spared that 1 percent by the fact that you apparently are a living and breathing human being.
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« Reply #18 on: March 28, 2012, 03:42:24 PM »

And my point is that until they start doing the science correctly, none of the rest of this even matters. If ruining the environment is what it takes to make people do good science, then so be it.

It will take the severe alteration of our environment and the collapse of automobile, gluttonous world as we know it to make people actually believe what scientists already know...

Frankly, I'm sick and tired of idiots from older generations screwing over my generation by pretending the scientists and environmentalists are just crazy (or at worse, liars).
My generation is getting absolutely screwed over and we are going to have to bear the burden of the mistakes that the idiots of the past are giving to us. We are going to have to spend our whole lives trying to reverse the selfish and ignorant decisions that the older generations have made.

If my generation doesn't try to fix the problems, then I fear that our children will not have a bright future...

There is no reasoning with idiots, and that is why we need to oppose retards like Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Obama, McCain, Bush etc...

Guess what, the automobile and gasoline age is coming to an end. America will probably not be the world's main superpower within my lifetime, and our country is headed for a very rough future because we live in an environment and society that we've built that has no value for sustainability and self-control.

Many of you are absolute hypocrites. On the one hand, you're Orthodox, and therefore I assume that you believe in self-control, denial of self and believe in controlling how much food you consume and how many material items you own and value. Yet on the other hand, you support the idiocy that is American culture and you support the lack of self control, individualistic and selfish society that we've built. You support the idea of consuming massive amounts of land and natural resources to build and live how we want to, and support the idea that there is nothing wrong with living in our society and living how we live.

Just look at movements like Occupy Wall Street, the support behind Ron Paul, and more... My generation is absolutely sick and tired of it, and we aren't going to put up with it anymore. I cannot wait till the older generations get old and begin retiring and leaving positions of power, because its time that the suburban loving, automobile-oriented, "American F*** Yeah", mass consuming generation gets the boot...

My generation believes in climate change whether yours does or not, and we are going to be the ones in power in the future, so you might as well accept that fact and quit screwing us over.

Whether you like it or not, we are going to take over and chances are, because your generation opposed environmentalism, self-control, sustainability, smart growth and real urbanism, your generation will be looked down upon by history and for generations to come.

The Transfiguration of Place: An Orthodox Christian Vision of Localism - Part 1
http://ancientfaith.com/podcasts/emmaus/the_transfiguration_of_place_an_orthodox_christian_vision_of_localism_part

The Transfiguration of Place: An Orthodox Christian Vision of Localism - Part 2
http://ancientfaith.com/podcasts/emmaus/the_transfiguration_of_place_an_orthodox_christian_vision_of_localism_

The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak oil
http://youtu.be/Q3uvzcY2Xug

Peak Oil - Visually Explained
http://youtu.be/gHKp5vF_VoE

Peak Oil - How Will You Ride the Slide?
http://youtu.be/Ulxe1ie-vEY

There's No Tomorrow
http://youtu.be/VOMWzjrRiBg

Orthodoxy and The Environment
http://www.patriarchate.org/environment

« Last Edit: March 28, 2012, 03:50:11 PM by 88Devin12 » Logged
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« Reply #19 on: March 28, 2012, 03:51:09 PM »

Quote
(Reuters) - Extreme weather events over the past decade have increased and were "very likely" caused by manmade global warming, a study in the journal Nature Climate Change said on Sunday.

Scientists at Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Research used physics, statistical analysis and computer simulations to link extreme rainfall and heat waves to global warming. The link between warming and storms was less clear.

"It is very likely that several of the unprecedented extremes of the past decade would not have occurred without anthropogenic global warming," said the study.

The past decade was probably the warmest globally for at least a millennium. Last year was the eleventh hottest on record, the World Meteorological Organization said on Friday.

I won't take a line either way on climate change/global warming. However, if you look at history, in the 1970s, extreme winter weather was leading people to speak of a coming ice age. I think it's irresponsible to link weather to climate. It's certainly not scientific. The two are different things.
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« Reply #20 on: March 28, 2012, 03:51:54 PM »

Frankly, I'm sick and tired of idiots from older generations screwing over my generation by pretending the scientists and environmentalists are just crazy (or at worse, liars).
My generation is getting absolutely screwed over and we are going to have to bear the burden of the mistakes that the idiots of the past are giving to us. We are going to have to spend our whole lives trying to reverse the selfish and ignorant decisions that the older generations have made.

You should read this book, you'd probably get some peace of mind out of it...

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« Reply #21 on: March 28, 2012, 03:55:32 PM »

I was a music major at a community collage so what do I know.

I have listen to the scientists on BOTH sides of the debate though. The only thing I have really heard unanimously agreed upon is that Global warming will happen. Most believe it has indeed already started. My favorite comment was that Global warming is a natural cycle that will happen, and has already started. It has happened before on this planet and I don't think it was caused by cave men and their camp fires.  Wink

Granted he was being a tad bit sarcastic but does make a point. With that said I'm sure we can all agree that as a human race we have not been the stewards we should of this planet. Are we really causing global warming though?? IDK about that one.
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« Reply #22 on: March 28, 2012, 03:57:58 PM »

Human activity is a natural process.

Surely.

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« Reply #23 on: March 28, 2012, 03:58:38 PM »

Frankly, I'm sick and tired of idiots from older generations screwing over my generation by pretending the scientists and environmentalists are just crazy (or at worse, liars).
My generation is getting absolutely screwed over and we are going to have to bear the burden of the mistakes that the idiots of the past are giving to us. We are going to have to spend our whole lives trying to reverse the selfish and ignorant decisions that the older generations have made.

You should read this book, you'd probably get some peace of mind out of it...

Others should read these books:

The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century
http://www.amazon.com/The-Long-Emergency-Catastrophes-Twenty-First/dp/0871138883

World Made by Hand
http://www.amazon.com/World-Made-Hand-A-Novel/dp/0871139782/ref=pd_sim_b_3

The Geography of Nowhere: The Rise and Decline of America's Man-Made Landscape
http://www.amazon.com/The-Geography-Nowhere-Americas-Landscape/dp/0671888250/ref=pd_sim_b_4

Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak
http://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Oil-View-Hubberts-Peak/dp/080902957X/ref=sr_1_16?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1332964829&sr=1-16

Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage
http://www.amazon.com/Hubberts-Peak-Impending-Shortage-Edition/dp/0691141193/ref=pd_bxgy_b_img_b

The Death and Life of Great American Cities
http://www.amazon.com/American-Cities-Anniversary-Edition-Library/dp/0679644334/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1332964873&sr=1-1

The Smart Growth Manual
http://www.amazon.com/Smart-Growth-Manual-Andres-Duany/dp/0071376755/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1332964898&sr=1-2

Suburban Nation: The Rise of Sprawl and the Decline of the American Dream
http://www.amazon.com/Suburban-Nation-Sprawl-Decline-American/dp/0865477507/ref=sr_1_5?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1332964927&sr=1-5
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« Reply #24 on: March 28, 2012, 04:04:45 PM »

And my point is that until they start doing the science correctly, none of the rest of this even matters. If ruining the environment is what it takes to make people do good science, then so be it.

It will take the severe alteration of our environment and the collapse of automobile, gluttonous world as we know it to make people actually believe what scientists already know...

Frankly, I'm sick and tired of idiots from older generations screwing over my generation by pretending the scientists and environmentalists are just crazy (or at worse, liars).
My generation is getting absolutely screwed over and we are going to have to bear the burden of the mistakes that the idiots of the past are giving to us. We are going to have to spend our whole lives trying to reverse the selfish and ignorant decisions that the older generations have made.

If my generation doesn't try to fix the problems, then I fear that our children will not have a bright future...

There is no reasoning with idiots, and that is why we need to oppose retards like Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Obama, McCain, Bush etc...

Guess what, the automobile and gasoline age is coming to an end. America will probably not be the world's main superpower within my lifetime, and our country is headed for a very rough future because we live in an environment and society that we've built that has no value for sustainability and self-control.

Many of you are absolute hypocrites. On the one hand, you're Orthodox, and therefore I assume that you believe in self-control, denial of self and believe in controlling how much food you consume and how many material items you own and value. Yet on the other hand, you support the idiocy that is American culture and you support the lack of self control, individualistic and selfish society that we've built. You support the idea of consuming massive amounts of land and natural resources to build and live how we want to, and support the idea that there is nothing wrong with living in our society and living how we live.

Just look at movements like Occupy Wall Street, the support behind Ron Paul, and more... My generation is absolutely sick and tired of it, and we aren't going to put up with it anymore. I cannot wait till the older generations get old and begin retiring and leaving positions of power, because its time that the suburban loving, automobile-oriented, "American F*** Yeah", mass consuming generation gets the boot...

My generation believes in climate change whether yours does or not, and we are going to be the ones in power in the future, so you might as well accept that fact and quit screwing us over.

Whether you like it or not, we are going to take over and chances are, because your generation opposed environmentalism, self-control, sustainability, smart growth and real urbanism, your generation will be looked down upon by history and for generations to come.

The Transfiguration of Place: An Orthodox Christian Vision of Localism - Part 1
http://ancientfaith.com/podcasts/emmaus/the_transfiguration_of_place_an_orthodox_christian_vision_of_localism_part

The Transfiguration of Place: An Orthodox Christian Vision of Localism - Part 2
http://ancientfaith.com/podcasts/emmaus/the_transfiguration_of_place_an_orthodox_christian_vision_of_localism_

The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak oil
http://youtu.be/Q3uvzcY2Xug

Peak Oil - Visually Explained
http://youtu.be/gHKp5vF_VoE

Peak Oil - How Will You Ride the Slide?
http://youtu.be/Ulxe1ie-vEY

There's No Tomorrow
http://youtu.be/VOMWzjrRiBg

Orthodoxy and The Environment
http://www.patriarchate.org/environment


*yawn* said from the top of the mountain Im sure...how lowly us plebs must seem to you.

PP
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« Reply #25 on: March 28, 2012, 04:09:05 PM »

Frankly, I'm sick and tired of idiots from older generations screwing over my generation by pretending the scientists and environmentalists are just crazy (or at worse, liars).
My generation is getting absolutely screwed over and we are going to have to bear the burden of the mistakes that the idiots of the past are giving to us. We are going to have to spend our whole lives trying to reverse the selfish and ignorant decisions that the older generations have made.

You should read this book, you'd probably get some peace of mind out of it...



You are kidding right?
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« Reply #26 on: March 28, 2012, 04:12:47 PM »

Also, for those scientists who oppose the idea of man-made climate change... Tell me, how are they any different from the so-called "engineers" and "architects" who believe that 9/11 was an inside job and the towers were a controlled demolition?

There are absolute idiots in every profession. I put those two in the same camp... Personally, the architects and engineers that claim 9/11 was a controlled demolition should immediately lose their licensure and be banned from practice.
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« Reply #27 on: March 28, 2012, 04:15:04 PM »

Devin,

The good news that some of the measures suggested by those who believe we can affect the climate are tied easily to other problems which are quite clearly delineated: water, air, noise pollution, etc.

We really don't need to engage in this ridiculous discussion where most are just completely ignorant as in most cases, not everyone can be expert in everything, and others use their sophistication to poke interesting looking holes into the straw man.

Plus, you will find per primus' post, that any American who finds themselves outside their measure on any topic and might have to admit they don't know what they are talking about will run immediately into the anti-intellectual position.

So find the "smaller" issues: pollution, crime, etc. which are addressed by the same solutions posited as those to the human activity driver aspect of climate change.

It works better.
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« Reply #28 on: March 28, 2012, 04:18:34 PM »

Quote
Also, for those scientists who oppose the idea of man-made climate change
Just the ones who deny it, or the ones that got busted lying about it?

Quote
Tell me, how are they any different from the so-called "engineers" and "architects" who believe that 9/11 was an inside job and the towers were a controlled demolition?
Real science I would imagine.

Quote
There are absolute idiots in every profession. I put those two in the same camp... Personally, the architects and engineers that claim 9/11 was a controlled demolition should immediately lose their licensure and be banned from practice
Well, I know I would not hire them to design my house.

Look, i for one am not denying climate change however I have to say that I just dont think that humanity is the main cause. Especially since there have been climate changes WAY before the automobile. Are we helping matters? Absolutely not. but to lay it solely at the feet of humanity is silly.

Quote
Plus, you will find per primus' post, that any American who finds themselves outside their measure on any topic and might have to admit they don't know what they are talking about will run immediately into the anti-intellectual position
My reaction was emotional to be sure. But really, insulting folks doesn't get too far. Especially when you look close enough, what you're attacking others on you might be guilty of some as well.

PP
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« Reply #29 on: March 28, 2012, 04:19:23 PM »

You are kidding right?

Not at all. I think it will give him some peace of mind. Whether Kuhn's philosophy of science is correct or not is entirely irrelevant. As it stands now I feel like he's gonna have a heart attack or something with all the worrying!
« Last Edit: March 28, 2012, 04:20:24 PM by Asteriktos » Logged

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« Reply #30 on: March 28, 2012, 04:29:11 PM »

Devin,

The good news that some of the measures suggested by those who believe we can affect the climate are tied easily to other problems which are quite clearly delineated: water, air, noise pollution, etc.

We really don't need to engage in this ridiculous discussion where most are just completely ignorant as in most cases, not everyone can be expert in everything, and others use their sophistication to poke interesting looking holes into the straw man.

Plus, you will find per primus' post, that any American who finds themselves outside their measure on any topic and might have to admit they don't know what they are talking about will run immediately into the anti-intellectual position.

So find the "smaller" issues: pollution, crime, etc. which are addressed by the same solutions posited as those to the human activity driver aspect of climate change.

It works better.

I was actually about to mention those...

Our way of life isn't just wrong because we are (potentially) changing our climate, but because we are definitely causing a huge amount of air pollution and water pollution.

We are highly individualistic and anti-social, we love isolating ourselves from one another, and this is spreading into our homes.

We are building infrastructure that we cannot afford to maintain, we have so many sewers, roads, electrical lines and more that are spread over hundreds of square miles per city, and  at such a low density that we cannot (literally) afford to maintain them.

The fact that our diet is so bad and that we drive everywhere rather than walking has contributed to a decline in health of Americans, we have literally become fat and we are clogging our arteries. Healthcare costs so much more both because of a faulty system, but also because Americans are terribly unhealthy compared to other parts of the world like Europe.

We have built out so much that we aren't just increasing pollution,  but we've turned our cities into gigantic heat islands, effecting the climate itself. I cannot tell you how many times I've watched tornadic storms break up as they hit the Kansas City Metropolitan Area due to the increase in temperature, only to reappear once they move past and to a less dense side of the city. Also, because of our air pollution, our storms are also producing a lot of acid rain, which is both unhealthy, and increases maintenance cost on everything we build.

Our food production has become so focused on factories and the average distance food travels to your shopping center is about 1,000 miles. This is going to end with higher gas prices because most travels by freight trucks (semis). Therefore we are going to need to grow, produce and sell food locally.

Natural habitats were destroyed and are still being destroyed by the sprawl of our cities. We have taken land which once held lots of wildlife and farmland, and have turned it into gigantic paved parking lots, roads and miles of houses and big box stores. We may have trees, bushes and flowers, but we are no longer truly close to nature, and even if we move to the edge of the city, it won't be rural for long.

So if climate change isn't enough to motivate someone to seek after change in the American way of life, all of those reasons should be more than enough for people to desire change.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2012, 04:30:49 PM by 88Devin12 » Logged
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« Reply #31 on: March 28, 2012, 04:29:17 PM »

Devin,

Let me be blunt with you. The hyper-reactionary emotionalism you've shown on this thread and on this forum in general has totally destroyed any credibility you might have had previously. You really need to cool it right now.
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« Reply #32 on: March 28, 2012, 04:31:54 PM »

Quote
I was actually about to mention those... Our way of life isn't just wrong because we are (potentially) changing our climate, but because we are definitely causing a huge amount of air pollution and water pollution. We are highly individualistic and anti-social, we love isolating ourselves from one another, and this is spreading into our homes. We are building infrastructure that we cannot afford to maintain, we have so many sewers, roads, electrical lines and more that are spread over hundreds of square miles per city, and  at such a low density that we cannot (literally) afford to maintain them. The fact that our diet is so bad and that we drive everywhere rather than walking has contributed to a decline in health of Americans, we have literally become fat and we are clogging our arteries. Healthcare costs so much more both because of a faulty system, but also because Americans are terribly unhealthy compared to other parts of the world like Europe.
We have built out so much that we aren't just increasing pollution,  but we've turned our cities into gigantic heat islands, effecting the climate itself. I cannot tell you how many times I've watched tornadic storms break up as they hit the Kansas City Metropolitan Area due to the increase in temperature, only to reappear once they move past and to a less dense side of the city. Also, because of our air pollution, our storms are also producing a lot of acid rain, which is both unhealthy, and increases maintenance cost on everything we build.
Our food production has become so focused on factories and the average distance food travels to your shopping center is about 1,000 miles. This is going to end with higher gas prices because most travels by freight trucks (semis). Therefore we are going to need to grow, produce and sell food locally.
Natural habitats were destroyed and are still being destroyed by the sprawl of our cities. We have taken land which once held lots of wildlife and farmland, and have turned it into gigantic paved parking lots, roads and miles of houses and big box stores. We may have trees, bushes and flowers, but we are no longer truly close to nature, and even if we move to the edge of the city, it won't be rural for long.
Our cities will no longer be able to afford maintenance on their infrastructure. There is so much infrastructure that needs to be maintained, and due to our low density style of living, we simply won't be able to afford to keep it all at an acceptable level of maintenance.

So if climate change isn't enough to motivate someone to seek after change in the American way of life, all of those reasons should be more than enough for people to desire change
Now that the firebolts have ceased, I can agree with most of what you said.

I think part of the problem is, this beast has been created, and in order to survive, you gotta participate in it. I wish it wasn't like that, and if everything goes well during the next lottery drawing, I wont participate in it anymore. Until then, I dont see any way to stop it.

PP
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« Reply #33 on: March 28, 2012, 04:35:12 PM »

Devin,

Let me be blunt with you. The hyper-reactionary emotionalism you've shown on this thread and on this forum in general totally destroys any credibility you might have had previously.

Your point being? This is just a forum, I don't really care how much credibility I have. There are 300 million Americans out there, I'm not out to convince every one of them, nor to convince you. If Americans choose not to believe, that is their own choice. But they will be forced into change by the consequences of their behavior and lifestyles.

So whether or not you choose to believe me or give me credibility is irrelevant, because the world is going to change anyway, no matter if we choose to believe it will or not.
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« Reply #34 on: March 28, 2012, 04:37:02 PM »

Quote
I was actually about to mention those... Our way of life isn't just wrong because we are (potentially) changing our climate, but because we are definitely causing a huge amount of air pollution and water pollution. We are highly individualistic and anti-social, we love isolating ourselves from one another, and this is spreading into our homes. We are building infrastructure that we cannot afford to maintain, we have so many sewers, roads, electrical lines and more that are spread over hundreds of square miles per city, and  at such a low density that we cannot (literally) afford to maintain them. The fact that our diet is so bad and that we drive everywhere rather than walking has contributed to a decline in health of Americans, we have literally become fat and we are clogging our arteries. Healthcare costs so much more both because of a faulty system, but also because Americans are terribly unhealthy compared to other parts of the world like Europe.
We have built out so much that we aren't just increasing pollution,  but we've turned our cities into gigantic heat islands, effecting the climate itself. I cannot tell you how many times I've watched tornadic storms break up as they hit the Kansas City Metropolitan Area due to the increase in temperature, only to reappear once they move past and to a less dense side of the city. Also, because of our air pollution, our storms are also producing a lot of acid rain, which is both unhealthy, and increases maintenance cost on everything we build.
Our food production has become so focused on factories and the average distance food travels to your shopping center is about 1,000 miles. This is going to end with higher gas prices because most travels by freight trucks (semis). Therefore we are going to need to grow, produce and sell food locally.
Natural habitats were destroyed and are still being destroyed by the sprawl of our cities. We have taken land which once held lots of wildlife and farmland, and have turned it into gigantic paved parking lots, roads and miles of houses and big box stores. We may have trees, bushes and flowers, but we are no longer truly close to nature, and even if we move to the edge of the city, it won't be rural for long.
Our cities will no longer be able to afford maintenance on their infrastructure. There is so much infrastructure that needs to be maintained, and due to our low density style of living, we simply won't be able to afford to keep it all at an acceptable level of maintenance.

So if climate change isn't enough to motivate someone to seek after change in the American way of life, all of those reasons should be more than enough for people to desire change
Now that the firebolts have ceased, I can agree with most of what you said.

I think part of the problem is, this beast has been created, and in order to survive, you gotta participate in it. I wish it wasn't like that, and if everything goes well during the next lottery drawing, I wont participate in it anymore. Until then, I dont see any way to stop it.

PP

Not exactly, my point is that we need to euthanize the beast peacefully before it suffers an agonizing self-destructive death.

We can either make changes to make the transition easier and less painful. Or we can refuse to make changes and deal with the catastrophe that is coming... Since I'm going to be one of those living in that future, I don't want to have to deal with a collapse...

If we stay ahead of the game, we will be in good shape. But right now, we are behind and we are going to fall behind the rest of the world, and we will probably fall pretty hard.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2012, 04:42:18 PM by 88Devin12 » Logged
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« Reply #35 on: March 29, 2012, 01:15:02 AM »

Devin,

Let me be blunt with you. The hyper-reactionary emotionalism you've shown on this thread and on this forum in general totally destroys any credibility you might have had previously.

Your point being?
My point being that when you start calling us hypocrites, you show that you're dangerously close to the kind of ad hominem that will get you disciplined on this forum. Not that I'm threatening you, even though I am speaking from my experience as one of this forum's moderators, but you do need to be aware that you often let your rage against the machine carry you away into zones that you just don't want to enter. I hope merely that you will see how close you get at times to getting yourself into trouble with your inflamed rhetoric and how you need to strive to keep a much cooler head on your shoulders in such debates as this.
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« Reply #36 on: March 29, 2012, 01:45:41 AM »

We are highly individualistic and anti-social, we love isolating ourselves from one another, and this is spreading into our homes.

Do we really love that?  Who is this 'we' fellow who does?  Most of the people that I know, who isolate themselves from others, have mental issues (usually anxiety disorders).  They do not generally "love" doing so, but do so nonetheless.
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« Reply #37 on: March 29, 2012, 03:25:47 AM »

And my point is that until they start doing the science correctly, none of the rest of this even matters. If ruining the environment is what it takes to make people do good science, then so be it.

It will take the severe alteration of our environment and the collapse of automobile, gluttonous world as we know it to make people actually believe what scientists already know...

Frankly, I'm sick and tired of idiots from older generations screwing over my generation by pretending the scientists and environmentalists are just crazy (or at worse, liars).
My generation is getting absolutely screwed over and we are going to have to bear the burden of the mistakes that the idiots of the past are giving to us. We are going to have to spend our whole lives trying to reverse the selfish and ignorant decisions that the older generations have made.

If my generation doesn't try to fix the problems, then I fear that our children will not have a bright future...

There is no reasoning with idiots, and that is why we need to oppose retards like Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Obama, McCain, Bush etc...

Guess what, the automobile and gasoline age is coming to an end. America will probably not be the world's main superpower within my lifetime, and our country is headed for a very rough future because we live in an environment and society that we've built that has no value for sustainability and self-control.

Many of you are absolute hypocrites. On the one hand, you're Orthodox, and therefore I assume that you believe in self-control, denial of self and believe in controlling how much food you consume and how many material items you own and value. Yet on the other hand, you support the idiocy that is American culture and you support the lack of self control, individualistic and selfish society that we've built. You support the idea of consuming massive amounts of land and natural resources to build and live how we want to, and support the idea that there is nothing wrong with living in our society and living how we live.

Just look at movements like Occupy Wall Street, the support behind Ron Paul, and more... My generation is absolutely sick and tired of it, and we aren't going to put up with it anymore. I cannot wait till the older generations get old and begin retiring and leaving positions of power, because its time that the suburban loving, automobile-oriented, "American F*** Yeah", mass consuming generation gets the boot...

My generation believes in climate change whether yours does or not, and we are going to be the ones in power in the future, so you might as well accept that fact and quit screwing us over.

Whether you like it or not, we are going to take over and chances are, because your generation opposed environmentalism, self-control, sustainability, smart growth and real urbanism, your generation will be looked down upon by history and for generations to come.

The Transfiguration of Place: An Orthodox Christian Vision of Localism - Part 1
http://ancientfaith.com/podcasts/emmaus/the_transfiguration_of_place_an_orthodox_christian_vision_of_localism_part

The Transfiguration of Place: An Orthodox Christian Vision of Localism - Part 2
http://ancientfaith.com/podcasts/emmaus/the_transfiguration_of_place_an_orthodox_christian_vision_of_localism_

The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak oil
http://youtu.be/Q3uvzcY2Xug

Peak Oil - Visually Explained
http://youtu.be/gHKp5vF_VoE

Peak Oil - How Will You Ride the Slide?
http://youtu.be/Ulxe1ie-vEY

There's No Tomorrow
http://youtu.be/VOMWzjrRiBg

Orthodoxy and The Environment
http://www.patriarchate.org/environment

Dude, if it's so obvious then prove it to me. This is science, not religion...it doesn't matter what you believe and your feelings are irrelevant. Now you posed a scientific hypothesis as a fact, so I'm going to hold you to the standards of the scientific method. So stop referencing theological arguments and bibliographies and let's focus on the actual claim you made. If this is a scientific fact then give me the scientific evidence that man is the cause of global warming...that's all I ask, real scientific evidence for a supposed scientific fact. I wouldn't claim that the earth went around the sun or that atoms existed if I couldn't personally defend that position with scientific evidence and I believe that is a fair standard for anyone claiming the authority of science.

Oh, and I'm maybe 10 years older than you, so why don't you come down off that horse?
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« Reply #38 on: March 29, 2012, 04:24:40 PM »

That's my biggest concern, we know from paleoclimatology that we have been in a global 'ice age' for the past 50 million years or so and if past weather cycles are any clue (and there's no guarantee they are) we're also due to climb out of this ice age and enter a global warm period.

Good point. I wasn't even thinking necessarily on those long of time scales, but you're right.

The climate is not static; it never has been, and it never will be. That being the case, being good organisms we should adapt to it, and not panic ourselves over global and universal systems over which we have no control.

And yes, there is sheer panic among members of the younger generation. Awhile back I was shocked to see videos of young, grade-school-aged children absolutely weeping in panic over global warming. I don't remember why the video was recorded, but the children had apparently just been propagandized by their teachers, and it seemed they believed they and their families were going to die at any moment if something wasn't done. Ridiculous. (But it's a classic tactic: brainwash the children and they'll pester their parents to change.)

I would like someone to tell me why the global average temperature of, say, 1950 is the ideal that should be preserved now and ever and unto ages of ages. There are many upsides to a global temperature increase, yet it seems that whenever it goes above some arbitrary value from the recent past, it is time to panic.

One other thing — the warm winter this year had nothing to do with global warming. It had everything to do with the jetstream staying farther north than usual, because the area of high air pressure over Greenland did not form in late fall as it usually does. It happens sometimes, especially in successive La Niña years. All the snow we normally get down here stayed up in Alaska, where snow records were broken.
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« Reply #39 on: March 29, 2012, 05:12:48 PM »

That's my biggest concern, we know from paleoclimatology that we have been in a global 'ice age' for the past 50 million years or so and if past weather cycles are any clue (and there's no guarantee they are) we're also due to climb out of this ice age and enter a global warm period.

Good point. I wasn't even thinking necessarily on those long of time scales, but you're right.

The climate is not static; it never has been, and it never will be. That being the case, being good organisms we should adapt to it, and not panic ourselves over global and universal systems over which we have no control.

And yes, there is sheer panic among members of the younger generation. Awhile back I was shocked to see videos of young, grade-school-aged children absolutely weeping in panic over global warming. I don't remember why the video was recorded, but the children had apparently just been propagandized by their teachers, and it seemed they believed they and their families were going to die at any moment if something wasn't done. Ridiculous. (But it's a classic tactic: brainwash the children and they'll pester their parents to change.)

I would like someone to tell me why the global average temperature of, say, 1950 is the ideal that should be preserved now and ever and unto ages of ages. There are many upsides to a global temperature increase, yet it seems that whenever it goes above some arbitrary value from the recent past, it is time to panic.

One other thing — the warm winter this year had nothing to do with global warming. It had everything to do with the jetstream staying farther north than usual, because the area of high air pressure over Greenland did not form in late fall as it usually does. It happens sometimes, especially in successive La Niña years. All the snow we normally get down here stayed up in Alaska, where snow records were broken.

You raise another good point, even if man is causing global warming, is it really that bad, or, at least, would it be as bad as the economic damage we would cause trying (and probably failing) to prevent it? And if we're resolved to spend that obscene amount of money anyway, what's more productive, spending it on global warming or on other global problems. We can cut malaria rates in half, substantially reduce abject poverty, almost eliminate malnutrition globally, and prevent 30 million cases of aids a year for about half the annual cost of the Kyoto protocol, were it to be fully implemented. And what's the benefit that climatologists predict we will get for the obscene cost of the Kyoto Protocol? Maybe a 10 year delay in global warming. We just don't yet have the technology to do anything about global warming, regardless of the cause, in an efficient manner today. We may very well be able to manipulate our climate on that level in 100 years, but we really can't today and the economic cost of trying to do so would lead to an increase in the problems that we actually can make a large contribution to solving.

And who's to say that global warming will even be that bad, the warm period in the Middle Ages gave a huge boost to the Scandinavian peoples, it brought about their golden age. It will mean that northern latitudes will be more hospitable and agriculture can move north. Yes, there will be some areas that get negative effects, but will these offset the positive ones? I don't know that anyone has even tried to calculate that, but I'm guessing that global warming would provide substantial benefit for countries such as Canada, Russia, and the Scandinavian countries, not to mention the northern US states, especially Alaska. If we're really lucky it may even open up the northwest passage and access to the resources currently covered by the Arctic ice sheet. Sure, we may have to build up sea walls, but that could be a small price to pay for more habitable land and the northwest passage.

Identifying the problem is only the first step and I really don't believe they have accomplished that. The next step is economic prioritization, what problems make the most sense to tackle first economically speaking, which ones give us the best cost-benefit ratio, and global warming definitely doesn't make it to the top of that list.
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« Reply #40 on: March 29, 2012, 10:16:39 PM »

That's my biggest concern, we know from paleoclimatology that we have been in a global 'ice age' for the past 50 million years or so and if past weather cycles are any clue (and there's no guarantee they are) we're also due to climb out of this ice age and enter a global warm period.

Good point. I wasn't even thinking necessarily on those long of time scales, but you're right.

The climate is not static; it never has been, and it never will be. That being the case, being good organisms we should adapt to it, and not panic ourselves over global and universal systems over which we have no control.

And yes, there is sheer panic among members of the younger generation. Awhile back I was shocked to see videos of young, grade-school-aged children absolutely weeping in panic over global warming. I don't remember why the video was recorded, but the children had apparently just been propagandized by their teachers, and it seemed they believed they and their families were going to die at any moment if something wasn't done. Ridiculous. (But it's a classic tactic: brainwash the children and they'll pester their parents to change.)

I would like someone to tell me why the global average temperature of, say, 1950 is the ideal that should be preserved now and ever and unto ages of ages. There are many upsides to a global temperature increase, yet it seems that whenever it goes above some arbitrary value from the recent past, it is time to panic.

One other thing — the warm winter this year had nothing to do with global warming. It had everything to do with the jetstream staying farther north than usual, because the area of high air pressure over Greenland did not form in late fall as it usually does. It happens sometimes, especially in successive La Niña years. All the snow we normally get down here stayed up in Alaska, where snow records were broken.

You raise another good point, even if man is causing global warming, is it really that bad, or, at least, would it be as bad as the economic damage we would cause trying (and probably failing) to prevent it? And if we're resolved to spend that obscene amount of money anyway, what's more productive, spending it on global warming or on other global problems. We can cut malaria rates in half, substantially reduce abject poverty, almost eliminate malnutrition globally, and prevent 30 million cases of aids a year for about half the annual cost of the Kyoto protocol, were it to be fully implemented. And what's the benefit that climatologists predict we will get for the obscene cost of the Kyoto Protocol? Maybe a 10 year delay in global warming. We just don't yet have the technology to do anything about global warming, regardless of the cause, in an efficient manner today. We may very well be able to manipulate our climate on that level in 100 years, but we really can't today and the economic cost of trying to do so would lead to an increase in the problems that we actually can make a large contribution to solving.

And who's to say that global warming will even be that bad, the warm period in the Middle Ages gave a huge boost to the Scandinavian peoples, it brought about their golden age. It will mean that northern latitudes will be more hospitable and agriculture can move north. Yes, there will be some areas that get negative effects, but will these offset the positive ones? I don't know that anyone has even tried to calculate that, but I'm guessing that global warming would provide substantial benefit for countries such as Canada, Russia, and the Scandinavian countries, not to mention the northern US states, especially Alaska. If we're really lucky it may even open up the northwest passage and access to the resources currently covered by the Arctic ice sheet. Sure, we may have to build up sea walls, but that could be a small price to pay for more habitable land and the northwest passage.

Identifying the problem is only the first step and I really don't believe they have accomplished that. The next step is economic prioritization, what problems make the most sense to tackle first economically speaking, which ones give us the best cost-benefit ratio, and global warming definitely doesn't make it to the top of that list.

Actually, in the event of a global warming, the ice caps will melt, which will subsequently cool the North Atlantic, and disrupt the Gulf Stream, which provides a lot of the warmer weather for Europe (especially the UK and parts of Northern Europe). If that stream is disrupted, Europe, especially the northern portions of Europe will cool. We also have to realize that these parts of Europe are on pretty much the same latitude as Canada and Russia. It is the Gulf Stream that has kept these regions relatively warm compared to places like Canada and Russia. Once that's disrupted, those areas will become much less "habitable" than they are now, they will probably become more equivalent to Canada in their temperature.
At the very worst, Western Europe would enter a mini-Ice Age, and the Eastern US would also suffer much colder weather than it already does.

Paradoxically, a global warming/heating will cause some areas of the planet to cool down.

Now, I am NOT getting this idea from the famous movie "The Day after Tomorrow", the movie inserts an actual scientific hypothesis into its "doomsday" scenario.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2004/05mar_arctic/

___________________________

Also, if the warming gets bad enough, it will raise the water level worldwide. While a couple feet doesn't seem like a lot, that would lead to the flooding of many coastal cities which aren't built sufficiently above sea level. (think parts of Manhattan, New Orleans, the Mediterranean etc...)

So whether or not we are the sole cause of it, I would say we are contributing to it. But it is something that needs to be a serious concern.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2012, 10:19:25 PM by 88Devin12 » Logged
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« Reply #41 on: March 29, 2012, 10:36:51 PM »

This reminds me of the wackos on You Tube weeping over the trees. They and those like them lack a sense of perspective. That is the nature of mindless activism.
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« Reply #42 on: March 29, 2012, 11:39:09 PM »

Regarding New Orleans: Whose bright idea was it to build a city on a river delta in a hurricane zone, anyway? Roll Eyes
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« Reply #43 on: March 30, 2012, 12:10:24 AM »

Regarding New Orleans: Whose bright idea was it to build a city on a river delta in a hurricane zone, anyway? Roll Eyes
The French?
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« Reply #44 on: March 30, 2012, 12:34:55 AM »

Regarding New Orleans: Whose bright idea was it to build a city on a river delta in a hurricane zone, anyway? Roll Eyes

I ask the same question about the river towns along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers... At least in Missouri the French did a good job of locating their trading posts and forts on the cliffs, who the heck decided to build towns in the flood plain? lol

Of course, you could ask a similar question about Venice, which is gonna sink in the next few centuries, or Mexico City which is also sinking...
« Last Edit: March 30, 2012, 12:37:39 AM by 88Devin12 » Logged
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