Author Topic: Predictions...  (Read 2199 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Robert

  • "Amazing"
  • Archon
  • ********
  • Posts: 2,442
Predictions...
« on: October 14, 2004, 08:32:19 AM »
Using the least squares regression model, I have put together some predictions based on past evidence of OC.net activity as to this month's estimated totals...

R2=+úGëí[yi-f(xi, a1,a2,...an)]2

then f(a,b)= a + bx
 
Date      New Top    New Posts   New Users     Most On      Total Hits
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oct-04   171   2370            35               29            103142


Lets see if they come true?

R

Offline Jakub

  • Archon
  • ********
  • Posts: 2,749
Re:Predictions...
« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2004, 12:15:33 PM »
My prediction is ME - 6, BEER - 0.

GO BOSOX - Yankees xxxx !

JB
An old timer is a man who's had a lot of interesting experiences -- some of them true.

Grant me the senility to forget the people I never liked anyway, the good fortune to run into the ones I do, and the eyesight to tell the difference.

Offline Justin Kissel

  • •|•|•
  • Protospatharios
  • ****************
  • Posts: 31,761
Re:Predictions...
« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2004, 02:19:35 PM »
I predict that if the NHL ends its lockout, I will get cable TV again for a few months.
"My doubt in Christ is not like that of a child; it was forged in a furnace of faith." - Dostoevsky

Offline Elisha

  • Protokentarchos
  • *********
  • Posts: 4,561
Re:Predictions...
« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2004, 03:23:44 PM »
Using the least squares regression model, I have put together some predictions based on past evidence of OC.net activity as to this month's estimated totals...

R2=+úGëí[yi-f(xi, a1,a2,...an)]2

then f(a,b)= a + bx
 
Date      New Top    New Posts   New Users     Most On      Total Hits
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oct-04n++n++n++171n++n++n++2370n++n++n++         35n++n++n++            29            103142


Lets see if they come true?

R

There could be others, but it is not f(a,b)=a+bx.  a and b are just constants.  it should be f(x)=a+bx

What is your calculated R^2?

Offline Fr. David

  • The Poster Formerly Known as "Pedro"
  • Archon
  • ********
  • Posts: 2,833
    • Iglesia Ortodoxa de los Santos Apóstoles
Re:Predictions...
« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2004, 03:25:37 PM »
There could be others, but it is not f(a,b)=a+bx.  a and b are just constants.  it should be f(x)=a+bx

What is your calculated R^2?

 :cwm28:
Priest in the Orthodox Church in America - ordained on March 18, 2012

Oh Taste and See (my defunct blog)

From Protestant to Orthodox (my conversion story)

Offline Jakub

  • Archon
  • ********
  • Posts: 2,749
Re:Predictions...
« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2004, 04:05:33 PM »
I'm pleased to see another NHL fan here beside me, a Beantown Bruin Beezer.

Tecate to all,

JB
An old timer is a man who's had a lot of interesting experiences -- some of them true.

Grant me the senility to forget the people I never liked anyway, the good fortune to run into the ones I do, and the eyesight to tell the difference.

Offline Elisha

  • Protokentarchos
  • *********
  • Posts: 4,561
Re:Predictions...
« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2004, 04:49:26 PM »
:cwm28:

No, you're supposed to have some sort of eyes glazing over/deer-in-headlights emoticon instead.

Hey, Bobby started it.

Offline Robert

  • "Amazing"
  • Archon
  • ********
  • Posts: 2,442
Re:Predictions...
« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2004, 05:58:55 PM »
I used to f(a,b)= a+ bx
to minimze R^2

So...
R^2(a,b) = n Sigma i=1 [yi-(a+bxi)]2

Then I defined the sum of squares, and got the correlation coefficient from that, then found the line of best fit.

R

Offline Ebor

  • Vanyar
  • Taxiarches
  • **********
  • Posts: 6,482
Re:Predictions...
« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2004, 06:11:15 PM »
Oh No!  Pedro's head has exploded!  

Suddenly I feel an urge to look up the rules for "Fizzbin"

 ;D

Ebor
"I wish they would remember that the charge to Peter was "Feed my sheep", not "Try experiments on my rats", or even "Teach my performing dogs new tricks". - C. S. Lewis

The Katana of Reasoned Discussion

For some a world view is more like a neighborhood watch.

Offline CatholicEagle

  • Elder
  • *****
  • Posts: 255
  • HH St.Pius X, Pope of Rome, Ecumenical Pontiff
Re:Predictions...
« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2004, 07:51:59 PM »
I'm pleased to see another NHL fan here beside me, a Beantown Bruin Beezer.

Tecate to all,

JB
Go Leafs go Leafs!!!![altohugh i live in detroit]

Offline Fr. David

  • The Poster Formerly Known as "Pedro"
  • Archon
  • ********
  • Posts: 2,833
    • Iglesia Ortodoxa de los Santos Apóstoles
Re:Predictions...
« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2004, 08:39:19 PM »
<Reassembles head just long enough to shout>

Go, Dallas Stars!!!  WOO HOO!
Priest in the Orthodox Church in America - ordained on March 18, 2012

Oh Taste and See (my defunct blog)

From Protestant to Orthodox (my conversion story)

Offline Ebor

  • Vanyar
  • Taxiarches
  • **********
  • Posts: 6,482
Re:Predictions...
« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2004, 10:36:02 PM »
What I want to know is:  Are the polls the Cap't has been starting part of the equation?

Ebor
"I wish they would remember that the charge to Peter was "Feed my sheep", not "Try experiments on my rats", or even "Teach my performing dogs new tricks". - C. S. Lewis

The Katana of Reasoned Discussion

For some a world view is more like a neighborhood watch.

Offline ania

  • Life according to Abe Simpson:
  • OC.net guru
  • *******
  • Posts: 1,097
Re:Predictions...
« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2004, 09:23:49 AM »
 GO REDSOX!!!
Now where were we? Oh yeah - the important thing was I had an onion on my belt, which was the style at the time. They didn’t have white onions because of the war. The only thing you could get was those big yellow ones...

Offline Jakub

  • Archon
  • ********
  • Posts: 2,749
Re:Predictions...
« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2004, 12:49:32 PM »
I hope somebody has blessed the Charles River.

Love that Dirty Water.

Yankees ....

james, from Dorchester/Jamaica Plains, Mass.
An old timer is a man who's had a lot of interesting experiences -- some of them true.

Grant me the senility to forget the people I never liked anyway, the good fortune to run into the ones I do, and the eyesight to tell the difference.

Offline ania

  • Life according to Abe Simpson:
  • OC.net guru
  • *******
  • Posts: 1,097
Re:Predictions...
« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2004, 03:42:31 PM »
4 hours & 18 minutes to game time...  to bad I will be in choir rehersal for the first 1/2.
Now where were we? Oh yeah - the important thing was I had an onion on my belt, which was the style at the time. They didn’t have white onions because of the war. The only thing you could get was those big yellow ones...

Offline Robert

  • "Amazing"
  • Archon
  • ********
  • Posts: 2,442
Re:Predictions...
« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2004, 01:43:16 AM »
My predictions were pretty close! I guess statistics actually does work :moan:

My estimates using least squares method:
Oct-04               171   2370            35               29            103142

Actual:
October 2004    155    2199       40    22   105813

All in all, not bad!

R

Offline Jakub

  • Archon
  • ********
  • Posts: 2,749
Re:Predictions...
« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2004, 02:09:49 AM »
Time for a re-examination of the books & inventory the bar supply, reorder those kosher pretzels.

JB
An old timer is a man who's had a lot of interesting experiences -- some of them true.

Grant me the senility to forget the people I never liked anyway, the good fortune to run into the ones I do, and the eyesight to tell the difference.