Greetings, Youzeck.
Are you really Belarusian? Your userid sounds Polish.
A little about my background... my wife is from Belarus (of Russian nationality) and we were married under the Moscow Patriarchate. The main reason I've been a catechumen this long is that I'm trying to work out getting chrismated in the parish we were married in.
That aside, the reason the MP (and Metropolitan Philaret in particular) is supporting Luka is that he has pursued a one-sided Russian nationalist position. What I mean by that is he has used the state to squeeze out other Christian faiths, including the local Belarusian Orthodox Church, in favor of the MP. Luka has also been pushing the country further into an eventual unification with Russia. I've read articles of journalists who've visited Metropolitan Philaret's home and saw photos of Luka adorning his walls. It's a bizarre situation, to say the least.
As far as what Orthodox think in the West, as +æ-ü+¦-â-ä+++¦+++«-é noted, not many know about the situation in Belarus. With Iraq and the Middle East in the headlines, no attention is paid to what's going on in Belarus. As long as Luka's not starting wars and creating refugee crises, it'll probably stay that way. I also believe the US government has given Russia a free pass to manipulate the politics in that country as they please. Back in 1996 when Luka ordered Belarusian helicopters to shoot down an off-course hot air balloon killing the two young American men inside, and then forced down the second balloon and held the men in jail for several days without telling the embassy, the media in the US made little mention of the incident, for unknown reasons. I was in Belarus at the time and the state media said there was an old man and woman on the balloon and they shot it down because the old couple had died of heart attacks (at the same time!) and they had no other means to bring the balloon down. I didn't learn the truth until I left Belarus and arrived in Germany.
It seems the US has pretty much stepped aside to allow the EU to deal with the Belarusian government, and they've not done a very good job (in my opinion) in holding them accountable to basic human rights, such as free and fair elections that are monitored and validated by the EU and OSCE. I'm not a believer that Belarus is not suitable for democracy; since they are a small country, there's no reason they can't follow the Baltic political and social model and be able to reform fairly rapidly. The society is homogenous, well-educated, technologically advanced by post-Soviet standards, and without social strife. The Mafia/corruption issue has been the rallying cry of Luka from day one, which doesn't make sense being that corruption is a major problem in the country. The government is essentially a Mafia-style regime that doesn't answer to the rule of law, or the constitution (for example, this referendum being held today is unconstitutional; the Belarusian constitution forbids referendums being called that affect the presidency. And this is the constitution that Luka wrote himself in 1996.). I've been in contact with small businessmen who've watched their businesses and savings stolen by Mafia goons in alliance with local bureaucrats. The best way to fight corruption isn't to further empower the government, but to strengthen civil society and allow opposition to participate in the political process. It helps to have a strong independent press that can investigate and openly report corruption. Unfortunately, this isn't a possibility in Belarus. And it looks like Ukraine is about to fall victim to the same fate.
